Back in the Ivy League bubble this morning after a long weekend steeped in the real world and reality. The Middle East, and for that matter the rest of the world, is anxiously digging for hints that could help reveal when and how Israel will respond to Iran’s failed attack over the weekend. I wish the amateur sleuths online and on the ground much luck. Israel is quite adept at not revealing its cards prematurely and Tel Aviv’s geopolitical poker face is world renowned. Unfortunately, since my attention is back to the Western Pacific course I am teaching right now, most blog entries between now and 7 May or so will be focused on the Westpac. Barring a major event, as always.
The Western Pacific region remains active at the moment. In the South China Sea, tensions between Beijing and Manila continues to grow. On Saturday night while the focus of the world’s attention was centered on Israel, a Chinese coast guard ship blocked two Philippine government ships at the boundary of the nine-dash line. The ships were allowed to proceed on their northwestern course after being held in place for eight hours. The act is largely viewed by many pundits and observers as a Chinese response to last week’s US-Japan-Philippines trilateral summit in Washington. In Taiwan preparations are underway for the inauguration of Lai Ching-te. Despite the significant attention its military exercises in the strait has received, China has been playing the waiting game since Taiwan’s presidential election in January. There’s growing concern that Beijing will raise the temperature with larger and more frequent military exercises as inauguration grows nearer. The chances of a spike in Chinese military activity in May are both high and probable. Then there is North Korea to discuss. Relations between Pyongyang and Beijing look to be markedly improving after a long period of indifference on the part of leaders from both countries.
As for the blog this week, there will be a more in-depth regional update on Thursday and by the weekend work will start on the next article-type, multipart Western Pacific entry.
Today's Defense & International Relations Topics 