Wednesday 26 April 2017 Update: New Chinese Aircraft Carrier Launched

The People’s Republic of China has launched its second aircraft carrier in the port city of Dalian. This ship will be the first domestically built carrier, however, it will not likely enter service until 2020. At present the PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy) has one aircraft carrier in service, the Liaoning, an ex-Soviet Kuznetsov class ship. When Liaoning became operational it was suspected that the ship was serving as a testbed of sorts for China’s aircraft carrier program. Judging by the first photos of the new carrier, which show its design has borrowed heavily from the Liaoning, the suspicion is reasonable. The flight deck layout and island structure is nearly identical to the Liaoning and its displacement of 50,000 tons is on par with the earlier carrier.

This is a big step for China. It has been over twenty years since the 1996 Taiwan Straits Crisis when two US carrier battlegroups were rushed to Taiwan in a traditional show-of-force that deterred Beijing from taking aggressive action against the island nation. The crisis forced China to acknowledge the threat posed to them by US aircraft carriers and accelerate its military buildup, and begin to consider building or purchasing aircraft carriers of its own.

The PLAN has taken on a more prominent role in China’s foreign policy as the South China Sea and Senkaku situations moved to the forefront of national priorities and international scrutiny. Large scale naval exercises and Chinese warships appearing at far-flung locations around the world were common in 2016 and act as the vanguard of China’s growing ability to project power and influence events with its own maritime forces. The ongoing buildup of US naval forces in the Sea of Japan serves both as a mirror of what the PLAN is striving to become, as well as an illustration of the sort of US involvement in regional matters that China wishes to deter.

 

 

Wednesday 11 January, 2017 Update: China’s Power Projection In The Pacific

The PLAN’s (People’s Liberation Army Navy)  sole aircraft carrier and its accompanying escorts continued their power-projection tour of the Western Pacific today. Liaoning has been at sea for the last three weeks or so primarily  conducting drills and taking part in exercises in the South China Sea. This morning it transited the Taiwan Straits and steamed northwest along the center line that divides the straits. Taiwan scrambled warplanes and monitored the transit closely.

The move has come at a time when tensions between Taiwan and the PRC are rising. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen spoke with US President-elect Donald Trump weeks ago, a move that broached diplomatic protocol and enraged Beijing. This past weekend, Tsai met with US Senator Ted Cruz on a stopover in Houston while she was en route to Central America. The meeting was controversial and served to increase the tensions between Taipei and Beijing.

China’s decision to transit the carrier through the straits appears to be geared as a warning to Taipei about its recent diplomatic moves as well as a show of force. It is the second action in recent days. On Sunday a Chinese H-6 bomber flew in close proximity to the Spratly Islands, a not-so-subtle message projecting China’s ability and willingness to use military force to settle territorial disputes.

There has been concern in Beijing that Donald Trump will change or abandon the One-China policy when he takes office. A state-run Chinese tabloid newspaper even went so far as to warn that China will take revenge if the One-China policy is tampered with.

Thursday 8 December, 2016 Update: Duterte’s SCS Maneuvering

Since President Rodrigo Duterte took office in Manila relations between the Philippines and China have improved considerably, while the PI’s relations with the United States have deteriorated to an extent. Duterte appears eager to move his nation out from beneath the shadow of the US and set it on a more independent course. Thursday’s remarks by the Philippine defense secretary are an example of this. Delfin Lorenzana said it is unlikely that the Philippines will allow the US to use his country as a springboard for freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea. He pointed out that the US has numerous bases in the region that its ships and aircraft can use.

Under Beningo Aquino III’s presidency, some US aircraft and warships stopped in the Philippines on their way to patrols in the South China Sea. Lorenzana also said that President Duterte will probably not allow that to continue in order to “to avoid any provocative actions that can escalate tensions in the South China Sea. It’s unlikely.”

This change in policy comes on the heels of Duterte proposing a marine sanctuary and no-fishing zone be placed in the middle of the contested Scarborough Shoal last month. He told the media that he planned to sign an executive order declaring the zone and had discussed the matter with his ‘counterpart from China.’ Should Duterte issue the executive order it would reassert Philippine sovereignty over that area. A move like that will undoubtedly cause friction with China and puts Thursday’s comments by Lorenzana into a more coherent context perhaps. Removal of material support for US freedom of navigation exercises in exchange for China’s acceptance of the proposed Scarborough Shoal sanctuary.

Regardless of intentions and actions, it is clear that Duterte is playing a very shrewd game of geopolitical poker. His hand is nowhere near as strong as he would like. Much to his chagrin, the Philippines are not a major power in the South China Sea dispute. Manila has neither the political or military capital to influence the intentions and actions of the US and China in the region. Cozying up to China will bring short term benefits. However, China will act when it ready to act and in a manner that benefits its own national interests first and foremost. When that happens, Duterte will have minimal influence over the situation. His only viable option will be to tacitly approve of whatever plans Beijing has in mind. The same can be said for his stance with the United States.

To put it another way, Duterte is punching above his weight and if he is not wary, the US will not be there to administer a standing eight count if needed.

Thursday 20 October, 2016 Update: Duterte’s Pivot To China

If the US-Philippines relationship were a marriage, this would be the day when the Philippines officially filed the divorce papers. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has taken a step that few observers believed would come. In the middle of an official state visit to China,  Duterte announced that he is ‘separating’ from the United States and embracing China as the Philippines newest and most powerful friend in the world. “Your honors, in this venue, I announce my separation from the United States … both in military, but also economics,’’ Duterte stated during a forum held in the Great Hall of the People. “I will be dependent on you.”

During Duterte’s visit agreements were signed for $13 billion in trade deals between China and the Philippines. Whether or not this pivot is genuine and sincere or an episode of bombastic grandstanding by Duterte remains to be seen. Washington will most likely adopt a wait-and-see attitude and declare that ‘all is well’ as the aftermath of today’s announcement plays out.

If Duterte’s words were genuine and his country is about to reject the United States and embrace China then Beijing has won a major diplomatic victory in the South China Sea and placed the United States in an unenviable position. Washington has little leverage and few options available as it comes to terms with what took place in Beijing. At the very least it severely undermines the Obama administration’s Pivot to Asia which has faltered more than once already. On the other end of the spectrum, if Duterte’s announcement becomes reality the US-Philippine alliance might be over permanently.

 

We will discuss this topic more on Monday or Tuesday.

Monday 5 September, 2016 Update: G20 Summit

In the weeks leading up to the G20 summit in Hangzhou China expectations remained cynically low for the two-day gathering. Although the gathering is an economic conference, it was clear that geopolitical issues would dominate talks. Tensions in the South China Sea, further North Korean missile tests, no agreement between the US and Russia on Syria, and increasing challenges to globalism and free trade had all played a part in making the prospects for a productive summit dim.

As expected, geopolitics took center stage. In his speech, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that one South Asia nation is responsible for spreading terrorism across the region. His comments leave little to the imagination regarding what nation-state he was referring to and the fact that the comments were made in Hangzhou make it obvious that Modi is hoping China can restrain the South Asia nation in question, which is an ally and beneficiary of the People’s Republic.

The tensions between the US and China came to the forefront at the start of the summit when incidents between US and Chinese officials took place at the airport. In one encounter, a White House press aide was instructing foreign reporters on where to stand as President Obama deplaned from Air Force One when a Chinese official confronted the aide. “This is our country. This is our airport,” the official declared angrily. Shortly after this, the same official confronted national security adviser Susan Rice, prompting the Secret Service to intervene.

When it was time to conduct business, Chinese President Xi Jinping told President Obama he opposes deployments of THAAD in South Korea and foreign intervention in the name of human rights. He called on the US to take a ‘constructive’ position in the South China Sea, help curb Taiwanese independence desires, and end support for Tibetan independence. So it appears that despite all of the areas where China and the US have forged cooperation, there remain a number of issues where the two sides are quite far apart.

Presidents Obama and Putin addressed a number of hot-button issues between the US and Russia when the two leaders took some time away from the summit to hold a meeting. Syria was the main topic with much of the discussion devoted to it. A US-Russia ceasefire and agreement on Syria has proven to be quite elusive and no progress was made in Hangzhou. However, Secretary of State John Kerry and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will continue talks later this week. The primary roadblock to a ceasefire agreement is the existence of ‘Gaps of Trust’ between the US and Russian governments. Put simply, there is a multitude of reasons for either side to distrust the words, intentions and actions of the other, and little reason to trust. Putin and Obama have both hinted that hope is not lost and a new agreement could be coming within days.

The last notable highlight of the G20 Summit was North Korea’s decision to launch three ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan on the final day. The move was likely an attempt to get the attention of world leaders at the summit and remind them that North Korea is still a force to be reckoned with in Asia.