Allegations and denials between Beijing and Manila over a purported agreement continue to play out. Today the Philippine defense secretary and national security adviser issued separate statements that deny China’s claim that an agreement had been reached with the Philippines and a ‘new model’ for handling the territorial dispute between the two nations is presently in effect. Earlier this weekend a spokesman from the Chinese embassy in Manila said that an agreement was reached earlier this year with the Philippine military’s Western Command on a ‘new model’ to manage the situation at Second Thomas Shoal. Claims and counterclaims have been exchanged and this appears as if it will continue into the coming week. The Chinese embassy has said the Philippine military’s Western Command made ‘repeated confirmation’ that the agreement was approved by ‘all key officials in the Philippine chain of command.’ China’s statements on the alleged ‘new model’ were not made public until after Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s administration rejected the existence of the ‘gentleman’s agreement’ that China claims was made in 2016 with former President Rodrigo Duterte.
China’s response to Manila’s denials this weekend will reveal the road Beijing intends to take with regards to Second Thomas Shoal. Should the Chinese opt to move forward under the ‘terms’ of this ‘new model,’ it can mean Beijing is looking to instigate a disproportionate response. Over the last twelve months, China’s actions in and around the Philippine EEZ have seemed illogical and counter-productive to its position in the South China Sea. However, a closer examination of the pieces, and the emerging puzzle now suggest that Beijing’s intent all along could’ve been to provoke a situation with the Philippines that paints Manila as the stubborn aggressor. The sudden existence of a ‘new model’ plan, the existence of which the Philippine government denies, opens the door to a more dangerous situation down the line that can escalate tensions to a dangerous level in the coming weeks.
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