Friday 26 January, 2018 Update: USS Carl Vinson to Visit Vietnam in March

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Planning and preparation is underway for the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson’s visit Da Nang in March. News of the potential visit broke when Secretary of Defense James Mattis was in Vietnam for talks with Nguyen Phu Trong, the general secretary of the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam. It’s almost certain now that the United States Navy will be returning to Vietnam in a very big way. Carl Vinson’s port call will mark the first time a US aircraft carrier has sailed in Vietnamese waters since Operation Frequent Wind, the evacuation of US citizens from Saigon in April, 1975.

Word of the port call comes at a time when tensions in the South China Sea region appear ready to flare up. China has claimed that earlier this month a US Navy destroyer violated its territorial waters when it sailed within 12 nautical miles of Scarborough Shoal. There is speculation that Beijing is preparing to make a move in the region.  On 30 December, 2017 Chinese state television broadcast video of Chinese military facilities on Fiery Cross Reef in the South China Sea. The broadcast highlighted the scale of China’s military buildup in the region. China may intend to use the transit as the reason for increasing its military presence in and around South China Sea.

Carl Vinson’s visit is symbolic of the growing defense relationship between the United States and Vietnam. Vietnam has been quite vocal with its opposition to Chinese moves in the area, joining India, Australia, Japan, and other regional powers that harbor misgivings about China’s long-term intentions. Those nations have followed the US lead and strengthened their defense relationships with Vietnam over the past five years. India has provided  advanced training for Vietnamese fighter pilots, and its budding submarine force. Australia has provided equipment and advisors to a lesser degree.

The purpose that is fueling the relationship’s growth is clear. Vietnam represents the first line of defense against Chinese actions in the South China Sea. The more capable its military becomes, the greater the possibility that it can slow down a potential Chinese military venture until US, Australian, and Japanese warships and aircraft arrive in force.

Sunday 30 April, 2017 Update: Carl Vinson Arrives in the Sea of Japan

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After a nearly three-week long saga which included miscommunication on the part of the White House and the Pentagon, unfulfilled assurances by a US president, and an admiral in the hot seat, the USS Carl Vinson and her escorts have arrived in the Sea of Japan. Better late than never, I suppose. The carrier group’s appearance coincided with North Korea’s latest test-firing of a ballistic missile. The missile malfunctioned shortly after launch, marking the fourth consecutive test failure for North Korea. Despite the failure, the test was still a defiant act by Pyongyang given that North Korean ballistic missile test firings are banned by the UN.

Vinson and her escorts teamed up with South Korean naval units for a series of workups before the strike group heads farther north today or tomorrow morning following an underway replenishment. There is some speculation and concern that another North Korean test will come on Monday, 1 May as it is May Day. The holiday is officially observed by North Korea and its symbolic significance would provide the perfect backdrop for a ballistic missile test launch, or perhaps a nuclear test. Threats and bluster from Kim Jong Un have followed the Carl Vinson on her circuitous journey to the Sea of Japan. Now, having a US aircraft carrier operating in close proximity to its shores holds the potential of being an irresistible temptation for Un.

On the surface, the US show of force in the waters off of Korea is provocative and suggests the arrival of an offensive military option for Washington. Realistically, however, the Carl Vinson strike group is not indispensable to any offensive military action the US might contemplate. Airstrikes against North Korean missiles and nuclear facilities can be launched from US airbases in Japan and on Guam using mainly USAF assets. Having a carrier present in the Sea of Japan certainly provides more avenues for US planners, but it is not essential.

Geopolitically speaking, on the other hand, having Vinson in the Sea of Japan is invaluable for the United States. The ship is a forthright representation of American firepower, as well as a highly visible signature of US resolve and commitment to its allies in the Western Pacific. Kim Jong Un cannot simply ignore it. The hope is that the Carl Vinson’s appearance will force him to rethink his strategy and deter him from taking ill-considered action that could worsen the crisis.

Judging by how Kim Jong Un has behaved over the last two months though, hoping for that could be pointless at this stage of the game.

Monday 10 April, 2017 Update: Gunboat Diplomacy in the Sea of Japan

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Following last week’s meetings between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the US is wasting no time in applying pressure to North Korea. With a North Korean nuclear test possible at any moment, and concern increasing over the ambitions of its long-range missile program, the US has rerouted the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson and her battlegroup to the Sea of Japan, off the eastern coast of North Korea. The move was announced by US Pacific Command (PACOM) on Saturday in advance of the carrier arriving back in the Western Pacific region. Rarely are the movements of a carrier group announced to the public. In this case though it is apparent the US wants to send a clear signal to North Korea and influence Kim Jong Un’s thought process.

Gunboat diplomacy is an auspicious tool for the United States to have available in its foreign policy toolbox. Nothing demonstrates US power and resolve like an aircraft carrier, as history has shown in countless examples since the end of the Second World War. The mere presence of a US carrier group off the shores of a volatile region is often enough to stabilize a tense situation. Now it is being applied to an agitated part of the world at a particularly strained moment.

North Korea is not used to being treated in such a blunt manner. For the past five and a half years the US has gone out of its way not to provoke an irrational response by Kim Jong Un. Now the movement of American warships to a point off of his east coast will force Un to come to terms with the fact that the new US administration is playing by different rules.