US Reducing Its Embassy Staff In Iraq

The United States is in the process of downsizing the staff of its embassy in Baghdad and other diplomatic facilities around Iraq. The Trump administration is taking the action in light of rising tensions with Iran. The recent death of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh and the approaching one-year anniversary of Qasem Soleimani’s death are the catalysts for the spike in tensions.  According to a State Department official, the reduction will not be permanent. The number of diplomats and staff members expected to depart Iraq has not been released, nor have any other specifics. U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Matthew Tueller will remain at his post for the time being.

The US embassy in Baghdad was targeted by Iranian-aligned militias earlier in the year, prompting a threat by President Trump to close the embassy indefinitely. The closure never came about, yet the threat was real enough to worry Iraq’s leadership, which has been striving to maintain profitable relationships with both Iran, and the United States.

The Trump administration continues to place sanctions on Iran for the purpose of undermining Tehran’s efforts to further progress on its nuclear program. As an added incentive, the administration is hoping further sanctions will make it increasingly difficult for an incoming Biden administration to return the US to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCOPA). Even though Biden’s foreign policy advisers seem to be giving the impression that a Biden administration’s first challenge will be China, recent moves by Tehran make it clear that Iran and its nuclear ambitions could demand the new administration’s full attention very early on.

The Fakhrizadeh Assassination

The Iranian government is certain Friday’s assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was undertaken on orders issued by the Israeli government. Tehran’s suspicions immediately keyed on Israel and with good reason. The chances of this operation being an Israeli undertaking are high. After all, Fakhrizadeh was a senior scientist and an integral contributor to the Iranian nuclear program. Targeting Iran’s nuclear scientists would be a logical next step for Israeli intelligence following a summer campaign that saw Iranian nuclear sites targeted by sabotage,  unexplained explosions and fires.

Outside of the Israeli possibility, there are two competing theories emerging among Western geopolitical analysts, and journalists. The first is that Farkhrizadeh’s killing was a political act intended to sour US-Iranian relations before the Biden administration has an opportunity to settle in. For this theory, the party responsible for the killing does not necessarily have to belong to a foreign intelligence agency. With US economic sanctions, and COVID-19 placing significant pressure on Iran’s economy, hardliners in Tehran have been demanding action against the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. The death of Farkhrizadeh certainly fits the bill as being an act worthy of retribution. The second theory is that the Trump administration is the responsible party, with its motivation being steeped in a deep desire to push Iran’s nuclear ambitions as far back as possible before 20 January, 2021. A third, less likely prospect is Saudi Arabia. Although the motivation is present, Riyadh’s General Intelligence Presidency does not have the ability to execute an operation as intricately planned as the Fakhrizadeh assassination apparently was.

Israel’s capabilities and motives are far more evident. The Mossad is more than capable of pulling off an operation such as this one. Given the present situation in the region, Tel Aviv has ample justification for ordering it. The Fakhrizadeh assassination might very well be a hedge against a future change in US policy regarding Iran. A Biden administration will be considerably less hawkish when it comes to Iran. Biden unveiled his foreign policy team last week and as expected, it appears weak. As we’ve seen in the past, a US willingness to engage in diplomacy to ease tensions with Iran encourages the Tehran regime to push ahead with its nuclear program, albeit in more inconspicuous fashion. Next month Israel could find its Iran policies and goals strikingly different from those of its US ally. Knocking off a senior Iranian scientist now deals a blow to the Iranian nuclear program, and as an added bonus informs the incoming Biden administration that its policies and stance towards Iran will not affect Israel’s own.

Eyes on Iran

On Monday the New York Times reported that last week President Trump was considering military action against Iran’s main nuclear site at Natanz. According to the Times, the president was dissuaded by senior advisers from choosing a military option. The fear of sparking a larger conflict appeared to be the main motivation. Predictably, the Times story has yet to be independently verified by other news outlets. However, its timing and subject matter have opened up discussions about Iran, the present status of its nuclear program, and what US policy will look like if Joe Biden is declared the official winner of the 2020 US Presidential Election when all is said and done.

Western media has been lax in its coverage of the Iranian nuclear program in the last two years or so. Only recently have outlets such as the New York Times and Washington Post seen it fit to report on accelerations in Iran’s nuclear program, specifically with regard to centrifuge production. However, the recent pieces have also included reports on how the Iranian government plans to offer a Biden administration options to defuse the crisis. The US has already been down that road once before with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Tehran essentially led from behind in the construction of that plan, laying out the terms it would accept, and then indirectly pressuring the Obama administration to bring the deal to life. Returning to JCPOA, or a similar agreement would be a monumental mistake, and likely impossible to do, no matter how much a Biden presidency might desire to.

Israel and Saudi Arabia have joined the US in expressing concern about Iran and the centrifuge work going on. Yesterday, the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed Iran has recently begun operating 175 new centrifuges at Natanz. Tehran has blamed Israel for a series of explosions that occurred over the summer at Natanz and near other nuclear sites in Iran. Even though the true culprit was never determined, Iranian authorities continue to suspect Israel, and to a lesser degree Saudi Arabia.

The bottom line is that Iran must be watched carefully in the coming weeks. Should work on centrifuges and other aspects of the nuclear program accelerate further, and Joe Biden continue to indicate his administration will adopt a more conciliatory, and passive Iranian policy, military action could become a real possibility. The only question then will be who launches it. The US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, or a loose combination of the three.

Iran Facing A Third COVID-19 Wave

COVID-19 cases in Iran have been rising dramatically, prompting health care and government officials to sound the alarm. Restrictions are being implemented now as it becomes apparent that a third wave of COVID-19 is upon Iran. The majority of Iranian provinces are classified as red on the national severity scale.  3,362 additional infections were recorded on Sunday and it seems that Tehran is experiencing the most cases.  Iran has been hard hit by COVID-19. As of this morning there have been 446,448 confirmed cases since the beginning of the pandemic. Iranians have not been following public health restrictions as well as the government would like. I fact both Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani have issued warnings to the public about adhering to restrictions better. The Iranian government also blames continuing US sanctions for creating conditions where COVID-19 thrives. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani accused the US of inflicting $150 billion worth of damage on the Iranian economy through sanctions.

International health experts are suspicious of the case count numbers in Iran. The death toll could be twice as high as the official figures. Undercounting, and selective testing methods have been cited as possible causes for a miscount. O

Despite the pandemic Iran’s uranium enrichment continues. In a confidential document distributed earlier in September the International Atomic Energy Agency reported the Iranian stockpile of low-enriched uranium increased by 523.8 kilograms between May and August.

Sunday 16 August, 2020 Iran Update: Israel-UAE Deal The Latest Headache For Iran This Month

Thursday’s agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates to normalize relations is attracting its fair share of backlash in the Middle East. Predictably, Iran is not too thrilled with the deal. On Saturday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani delivered a speech in which he called the move an act of betrayal by the UAE. “They [the UAE] better be mindful. They have committed a huge mistake, a treacherous act,” he said. The remarks caused the UAE government to summon the Iran’s charge d’affaires in Abu Dhabi. The UAE foreign ministry called Rouhani’s speech “unacceptable and inflammatory and had serious implications for security and stability in the Gulf region”. Iran was also reminded of its obligation to protect the UAE diplomatic mission in Tehran. Considering Iran’s history of encouraging protests in front of the embassies and missions of its neighbors in Tehran when their policies go against Iranian interests, the move was smart.

Iran has had a difficult August. The Israel-UAE deal is only the latest heartburn for the regime. Tehran was already dealing with an uncertain future for Hezbollah in Lebanon following the Beirut explosion, a still unsolved string of fires and explosions at energy  and nuclear sites inside of Iran, the worsening COVID-19 situation in the country, and the prospect of deeper economic sanctions looming in the future. After a US resolution to extend the arms embargo on Iran was defeated at the UN on Friday President Trump has vowed there will be snapback sanctions. The exact mechanism for bringing the snapback into play is being contested. The European Union claims since the US unilaterally removed itself from the JCPOA it does not have the power to bring about snapback sanctions. Washington claims otherwise. Either way, the Trump administration does have the power to levy even stricter sanctions on Iran, and pressure friendly nations to do the same.

Iran will be on the radar for the next couple of weeks at least so I suggest keeping an eye on news coming out of the Persian Gulf region.