Ukraine Update 7 May, 2022

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Saturday that a peace agreement with Russia will be contingent upon all Russian forces leaving Ukrainian territory. The remarks were made while speaking to Chatham House, a British think tank. Zelenskiy also said, “I was elected by the people of Ukraine as president of Ukraine, not as president of a mini-Ukraine of some kind. This is a very important point.” Indeed, it is. However, Russia shows no signs of letting up, as the situation in Mariupol has revealed. It’s not very realistic to think Moscow would be willing to return to pre-23 February boundaries willingly.
  • Evacuation efforts in Mariupol have concluded. The last women, children and elderly civilians left Azovstal steelworks earlier today, leaving only Ukrainian soldiers in the sprawling steel plant. With the civilians having left, Russian forces are expected to redouble their efforts to capture the plant and break the last bastion of Ukrainian resistance in the city.
  • The fate of the Russian frigate Admiral Makarov remains unknown at the present time. The Ukrainian government and military claim the ship was struck by an antiship missile near Snake Island yesterday. Russia has denied the claim, of course, and today released pictures of the frigate supposedly back at its homeport of Sevastopol.
  • Russian forces launched a missile attack against the Ukrainian port city of Odesa earlier Saturday. Ballistic missiles targeted a furniture factory and damaged nearby buildings. There has been no word on casualties. As fighting in Mariupol draws to a close, expect Russia to pay more attention to Odesa and other targets along the Black Sea coastline west of Crimea.

Afternoon Update: Confusion About The Ultimatum, EU Foreign Ministers Meet In Brussels, Pro-Russian Protests In Eastern Ukraine

 

Sometimes, the best way for journalists to report on stories responsibly is to take a deep breath and think for a moment before reporting. A crisis like the one in the Ukraine is very fluid. The situation changes at a breathtaking pace. The media is having a difficult time keeping pace with events in the Crimea. The stories about a Russian ultimatum to Ukrainian forces on the peninsula are a perfect example of this. Around three hours ago reports began to filter in about a Russian ultimatum to the Ukrainian military units in the Crimea: Surrender or face a ‘Military Storm.’ Shortly afterward, spokesmen from various Russian government agencies issued  statements denying that such an ultimatum was issued. Western media outlets continued to insist otherwise. Finally, the Associated Press reported that the ultimatum actually did happen. But it was made by the commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet (In reality more of a squadron than a fleet) to the captains of two Ukrainian warships in Sevastopol harbor. He wanted the screws of both ships to surrender themselves or the Russians would storm both ships.

 

The emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers has concluded in Brussels. Conclusions from the meeting have been posted online and are available below. In short, the EU is hanging on to the hope that diplomacy can somehow bring the situation under control. It cannot, but the EU is trying nevertheless.

 

Main Conclusions From The EU Meeting In Brussels

1. The European Union strongly condemns the clear violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity by acts of aggression by the Russian armed forces as well as the authorisation given by the Federation Council of Russia on 1 March for the use of the armed forces on the territory of Ukraine. These actions are in clear breach of the UN Charter and the OSCE Helsinki Final Act, as well as of Russia’s specific commitments to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity under the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 and the bilateral Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership of 1997. These actions are also a clear breach of the Ukrainian constitution which specifically recognises the territorial integrity of the country and states that the Autonomous Republic of Crimea can only organise referenda on local matters but not on the modification of the territorial configuration of Ukraine.

2. The EU calls on Russia to immediately withdraw its armed forces to the are as of their permanent stationing, in accordance with the Agreement on the Status and Conditions of the Black Sea Fleet stationing on the territory of Ukraine of 1997. Russia should also without delay agree to the request by Ukraine to hold consultations, as foreseen in the bilateral Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership of 1997, and to take part in urgent consultations among all signatories and adherents of the Budapest Memorandum of 1994.

3. The EU calls for a peaceful solution to the current crisis and full respect of the principles of and obligations under international law.

 

In the eastern Ukraine,  pro-Russia demonstrations are beginning to take place in the city of Donetsk. Protesters have stormed a government building and taken control of it. Keep in mind how events began to unfold in the Crimea. Now we’re seeing the same seeds planted in eastern Ukraine…another area where Moscow has much popular support.

The pieces are beginning to come together now. Putin’s knife is out, but his intention is not to stab the Ukraine to death. He wants to carve it up instead.