Ukraine Update: 26 January, 2022 (AM)

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov promised today that Russia will take appropriate measures if the US and NATO response to its security demands are less than productive. “If we do not receive a constructive answer from the west on our security demands, Moscow will take appropriate measures,” Lavrov said in a statement.  The US has said it will provide an official answer this week, though judging by the increasing tension in Europe, Washington appears to be deliberately dragging its feet. Russia’s demands center around two points; An end to NATO’s eastward expansion and a guarantee that Ukraine will never be offered membership in the alliance. Rolling back NATO influence in Eastern Europe and beyond has suddenly become the foundation of Russia’s foreign policy. The rapidly shifting position highlights the security dilemma Russia faces. Any action that is taken to increase its own security will invariably diminish the security of others and elicit a response. Moscow understands this, as well as the dangers that are attached to the security dilemma, which might explain the Russian government’s insistence on a point-by-point response to its security demands.

The United States has authorized its Baltic allies to send Stinger handheld surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine. Their arrival will not seriously deter Russia from using airpower in any future military action though. This move is largely symbolic in nature given the role that the Stinger played in Afghanistan during the Soviet occupation there in the 1980s. No timetable was given for how long it will be until the Stingers arrive in Ukraine, but some sources within the militaries of the Baltic States have indicated several weeks will be required.

Just under 10,000 troops in the US are on alert for movement to Eastern Europe. Most of these are paratroopers from the 82^nd Airborne Division at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. On Monday, the division’s 3^rd Brigade was ordered to prepare for possible deployment within 72 hours. Although much has been made about the growing possibility of a US troop movement to Europe, it needs to be stated that the US does already have military forces stationed across Europe and these forces will be utilized to reinforce NATO’s Eastern Flank too.

Ukraine Update: 21 January, 2022 (Morning)

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov have concluded their talks in Geneva. As expected, the talks produced no breakthroughs and ended with a generic, insincere assurance that dialogue to resolve the crisis will continue.  The Russian government is still waiting for the official US response to its demands for security guarantees, though it is unclear if it will be delivered by the end of this week as expected.

Blinken emerged from the talks and repeated the familiar American diplomatic position that Russia now faces a decision. “It can choose the path of diplomacy that can lead to peace and security, or the path that will lead only to conflict, severe consequences and international condemnation.” The secretary then went on to reiterate that any Russian invasion will be met by a ‘swift, severe and a united response from the United States and our partners and allies.’

Lavrov hinted that war or peace could very well be decided in Washington. He continued to place a great deal of importance on the impending official US response. Quite honestly, the Russian government has placed an inordinate amount of stock in the response. Almost as if Vladimir Putin is waiting for a resounding ‘No’ from Washington to kick off the next phase of the plan.

Lavrov used the talks as a platform to again reiterate his country’s position. Russia wants NATO to remove its military forces from the ex-Warsaw Pact nation-states that joined the Western alliance after 1997. This includes Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and practically every other former-Pact nation. There are more points to the Russian position but a removal of NATO forces from Eastern Europe and a new security arrangement along the frontiers of what has historically been the Russian sphere of influence form the core of Moscow’s security demands.

Ukraine Update: 18 January, 2022 (Afternoon)

The Kiev Express is ramping up as it becomes more evident to the West that Russia is poised to launch an invasion of Ukraine at any moment. Diplomats and other politicians from NATO countries continue to arrive in Ukraine for discussions with the Zelensky government, tours of Ukrainian defensive positions in the east and firm warnings to Vladimir Putin. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be in Ukraine tomorrow before doubling back to Berlin for discussions with his German counterpart. Then on Friday, Blinken will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Geneva. Friday’s meeting seems to be an eleventh-hour encounter that will be the last opportunity for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis. Blinken will feel Lavrov out to determine how much, if any, Russian interest there is in a diplomatic approach to deescalating the situation. Last week’s talks were aimed at finding that approach but ended in failure. Thus far, Russia has been insistent that a drawdown of its forces poised along the Ukrainian border needs to be tied to NATO accepting its security demands. The alliance has been insistent that it will do no such thing.

The White House has changed its language and tone regarding Ukraine and Russia. Earlier today, the White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters the US believes Russia is prepared to launch military operations against Ukraine at any time. An alarming statement given the more reserved public demeanor of the administration with regards to Ukraine and Russia recently. Last week, US officials raised concern about the possibility of a Russian operation to manufacture an incident which Moscow could use as a justification for military action. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan then stated that US intelligence was uncertain if Vladimir Putin had made a final decision on invading Ukraine. The new tone of voice from the White House this afternoon indicates the US intelligence assessment might’ve changed.

Ukraine Update: 22 December, 2021

Russia announced earlier today that security talks with the United States and NATO will begin in early January, 2022. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov repeated his country’s desire for legally binding agreements that NATO expansion will not continue and that certain classes of NATO weapon systems will not be deployed in close proximity to Russia’s borders. Dates for the discussions have not been agreed upon yet, though Lavrov has said there will be separate sets of talks for NATO and the US. It remains unclear what Russia’s expectations for the talks are, but Lavrov’s remarks give a hint. “I hope that they will take us seriously given the moves we take to ensure our defense capability.”

The foreign minister’s remarks came as Russian energy giant Gazprom continues to restrict natural gas supplies to Europe. There have been accusations lately coming out of European capitals that Russia is using energy exports as a weapon in the growing geopolitical struggle between Russia and the West. Gas prices in Europe are rising again in the face of Russian gas flows to Germany having been reversed yet again due to capacity issues.

The Heart of the Matter For Russia Is NATO Expansion

The prospect of NATO’s eastern expansion advancing deeper into the Russian sphere of influence remains an undeniable fear for the Russian government. It continues to color the Kremlin’s decision making and forms the foundation of Russia’s defense and foreign policy to a great extent. NATO’s eastern expansion is at the heart of Russia’s growing involvement in Ukraine, Belarus and on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border. It has been, for all intents and purposes, the thorn in Moscow’s side for decades. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s warning at a meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Sweden made it clear his nation is reaching the point where its actions will not be constrained by Western threats and military maneuvers in close proximity to Russia’s frontiers.

Lavrov and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met at the conference in Sweden. Whereas Blinken warned of “serious consequences” if Russia sought a military conflict with Ukraine. His Russian counterpart responded with a warning that Europe might be returning to the “nightmare of military confrontation.” He followed up with a proposal to establish a new security pact in Europe to prevent further NATO expansion. Essentially, Lavrov was proposing a return to the Cold War.

Yesterday in a speech, Lavrov accused NATO refusing to consider proposals to lessen tensions and prevent dangerous incidents. “The alliance’s military infrastructure is being irresponsibly brought closer to Russia’s borders in Romania and Poland, deploying an anti-missile defense system that can be used as a strike complex,” he said. “American medium-range missiles are about to appear in Europe, bringing back the nightmare scenario of a military confrontation.” Lavrov then went on to warn the alliance against transforming nations bordering Russian into “bridgeheads of confrontation.”

So, there it is. In the space of a handful of sentences, Lavrov laid out the heart of the matter for Russia: Halting NATO expansion. He also, in a less than surreptitious fashion, listed the issues Russia would be willing to negotiate on in exchange for a solution to the manufactured crisis in Ukraine. There’s no plausible scenario where Washington would agree to a withdrawal of the US military presence from Eastern Europe in exchange for a promise by Russia not to invade Ukraine. On the other side of the coin, Russia will not stand by idle and allow NATO expansion to advance unchecked forever. This crisis may pass without a military confrontation, but the problem is not going to dissolve anytime soon.