Iranian Involvement Suspected In Monday’s Oil Tanker Attack

Monday’s attack on a Singapore-flagged oil tanker docked at the Saudi Arabian port of Jeddah is raising fears of more attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure as US-Iranian tensions continue to mount. Although no nation, or group has yet taken responsibility for the attack on the BW Rhine, Iran is viewed as the instigator as the attack was likely carried out by the Yemen-based Houthi rebels, an Iranian proxy group. The tanker was struck by a small boat carrying explosives causing blast damage and a fire on board. The attack has temporarily closed the Saudi port and brought on concern about the safety of oil tankers in the Red Sea.

Iran is thought to have played a role in the attack. The recent assassination of nuclear scientist  Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, coupled with the declining health of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and other regional setbacks are forcing Iran to demonstrate it is capable of striking back at US and Saudi interests in the region. The above-mentioned events supply Iran with motive while the Houthis provided means. It is by no means a clear cut indication of guilt, however, all signs do seem to be pointing towards Iran.

Tehran Responds to Bahrain’s Normalization of relations with Israel

This weekend Iran came out and fiercely condemned Bahrain’s intention to normalize relations with Israel. On Friday Bahrain announced a deal along similar lines to last month’s deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates at the behest of the United States. That makes two Gulf State Arab nations set to establish full relations with Israel. Yesterday Iran called the move shameful and ignominious. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said Bahrain’s normalization “will remain in the historical memory of the oppressed and downtrodden people of Palestine and the world’s free nations forever.” If that were not enough, the Iranian Republican Guards labeled the move a betrayal of the Palestinian people, and a “threat to security in West Asia and the Muslim world.”

Iran is not only outraged, but also significantly worried about the direction of events in the Persian Gulf region. Two neighboring nation-states are on the road to making peace with Israel. Right now, Iranian leaders are no doubt wondering what nation will be next, fervently hoping it will not be Saudi Arabia, its regional rival. It would appear, however, that negotiations between Israel and the Saudis are underway. It would not be unrealistic to see them normalize relations by the beginning of 2021. The Kuwaitis, also in discussions with Israel, could be ready to announce a deal next month. Qatar’s position at present is unknown, but the Trump administration is likely making inroads there.

Make no mistake about it, the Trump administration’s goal here is to place Iran in a box that it cannot escape from. US pressure has been increasing on a number of fronts since 2017 and the Iranian regime knows the walls are closing in. Now, with neighboring Arab states making peace with Israel, Iran’s position in Syria will become more precarious. That affects its position in Beirut, which at the moment is not as secure as it was twelve months ago.

Iran’s reaction to the UAE and Bahrain will not be limited to words. At some point in the coming weeks expect to see tensions rise in the Persian Gulf. Another tanker hijacking incident off  the Emirates is probable, or a renewed Iranian threat to close off the Strait of Hormuz. It is no likely, however, that these or any similar moves will derail the prospect of US-backed peace breaking out in the Persian Gulf.

Global Markets Crater on Coronavirus Worries, and Oil Chaos

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Global markets took one on the chin today, both literally and figuratively. A combination of coronavirus panic, and the unexpected oil price deadlock between Russia and Saudi Arabia sent investors reeling, and caused European, Asian, and North American stock indexes to crater. The Dow fell 2014 points, marking its worst day since 2008 as investors fled for safe havens such as precious metals, and US treasuries. Other markets around the world fared no better. European markets tumbled an average of 7 percent, and in Asia the Nikkei dropped more than 5 percent and the Hang Seng Index lost 4.2 percent.

All things considered, some degree of volatility was expected to dominate Monday’s sessions given the coronavirus situation. However, it was the situation in the oil markets that brought on the rout. The oil production standoff between Saudi Arabia and Russia over the weekend took the world by storm and sent oil prices spiraling to some of their lowest levels since the 1991 Persian Gulf War. As it stands right now, Russia and Saudi Arabia’s actions could lead to an oil price war, something that could bring on unforeseen circumstances for oil and stock markets down the line.

The markets could’ve handled one or the other today, either the volatility brought on by coronavirus fears, or the oil collapse. Taking on both and coming out unscathed, however, was not in the cards. It remains to be seen how today’s events will affect global economies. Another day like today would put Wall Street on the verge of a bear market, and could quite possibly cause the juggernaut that is the US economy to begin to lose steam.

The next forty-eight hours will tell us a lot.

Turkey Considers Sending Troops to Libya

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Earlier this week Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hinted that his government is considering the possibility of sending troops to Libya to prevent Russian-supported forces from capturing Tripoli. Erdogan was quick to point out that such an intervention would not occur unless the UN-recognized Libyan government requested it.

Erdogan’s comments indicate just how much the position of the Government of National Accord (GNA) has deteriorated. Forces under the control of militia leader Khalifa Haftar, heavily backed by Russian weapons, and advisers, have tightened their siege of Libya. Haftar is publicly claiming his forces will be inside of Tripoli by the end of the year, a realistic probability given the present situation on the ground.

Libya, at the moment, keenly represents the mishmash of competing interests, and actions by powers in the region. In the past three months Russia has thrown its lot in behind Haftar, contributing a considerable number of mercenaries, and equipment. These moves has enabled Haftar’s forces to successfully resume the drive on the Libyan capital. Government forces opposing them are reaching the breaking point. If they are unable to prevent Haftar’s troops from entering Tripoli, it will likely mean the collapse of the GNA. Libya could once again descend into a long period of fighting between militias opposed to Haftar, and his forces. This turmoil will inevitably bring on a fresh exodus of refugees looking to escape the fighting. The most likely destination of these people is Europe, a scenario the European Union can hardly afford.

Russia is not the only nation backing Haftar. Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia have provided weapons, and material support in the hopes Haftar and his authoritarian style can restore stability to Libya. The US, and other Western powers have publicly supported the Tripoli government and UN efforts in Libya, but very little military support has been provided, on the surface at least. Behind the scenes is another matter entirely.  Earlier this week the US claimed a Russian air defense system was responsible for bringing down an American UAV in Libya.

Turkey’s support for the GNA is partly due to the continuing rivalry between it and the Saudi-led bloc. It has become the major provider of military hardware for the Tripoli government, though its motivations are not confined to Ankara’s desire to counter the Saudis. There is an economic element as well. Just days ago Turkey signed a deal with the GNA giving Ankara drilling, pipeline, and maritime rights over a wide area of the Mediterranean between the two nations. That particular move has set off a firestorm in Greece, and across Europe, however, it has not deterred Erdogan. For better or worse, Turkish involvement in Libya appears ready to escalate now that the survival of the GNA is directly tied to Turkish economic and geopolitical fortunes in the region.

US Suspects Iran Could Be Planning Military Action

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In the last twenty-four hours signs have appeared indicating Iran could potentially be planning a military move somewhere in the Persian Gulf region. The indicators started coming to the surface shortly after it was revealed that a US Navy warship seized a major shipment of Iranian arms headed to the Houthi rebels in Yemen last week. Since then, US military and intelligence officials have been closely analyzing the information coming out of the region and are concluding that Iranian action is possible.

It appears that Iran is using the chaos in Iraq as a cover to secretly move additional short-range ballistic missiles into the country. From points just outside of Baghdad these missiles can be launched against targets in Israel and Saudi Arabia respectively. The appearance of missiles in Iraq is not a new development. US intelligence has been warning of their presence since last year, and Israel launched airstrikes to destroy the hidden weaponry. The threat from the short range ballistic missiles is increasing as their numbers have been increasing lately.

Earlier in the week, the Trump administration has hinted that it could be sending additional troops to the Persian Gulf as tensions with Iran continue to rise. The size and make up of the new deployment remains to be seen, however, as the week has gone on, it seems certain that new US forces will begin moving to the Gulf in a matter of days in an attempt to strengthen US military options in the region should Iran decide to move.

The Iranians appear to be reacting to the prospect of more US forces in the area. According to reports from media sources, and from inside of the Pentagon, Iran has started moving additional air defense units to Bushehr, site of its sole nuclear reactor, and also the location where a new reactor is under construction. Obviously, the air defenses are being strengthened there to deter the US from launching air and cruise missile strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities.