Blinken Returned Emptyhanded From China

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s China trip last week did little to help relations between the United States and China. If anything, his three days in China served to highlight the expanding divide between the two superpowers on a host of issues. Blinken arrived in China with marching orders from the White House to warn Beijing that the US is seriously concerned with Chinese support for Russia’s defense industry as the war in Ukraine continues. Blinken concluded his trip last Friday with a warning to cease exporting materials that allow Russia to rebuild its industrial base or else face US sanctions. China has refused to end its support and the threat of sanctions is hardly raising an eyebrow among Chinese leadership.

In fact, Xi Jinping countered by informing Blinken that the United States needs to look at China’s rise positively for relations to improve. China’s foreign minister Wang Yi made similar remarks.  “China’s legitimate development rights have been unreasonably suppressed and our core interests are facing challenges.”  The head Chinese diplomat also remarked, however, that he believes US and Chinese relations are starting to stabilize with increased dialogue and cooperation.

With all of that in mind, Chinese military activity around Taiwan picked up measurably following Blinken’s departure. Within twenty-four hours, Chinese warplanes crossed the median line of Taiwan Strait. The line had served as an unofficial border between China and Taiwan, but in recent years China has routinely sent aircraft across the it. Beijing claims it does not regard the median line’s existence.  

Ukraine Update 15 March 2024: Macron Touts Unity as Zelenskiy ‘Pleads’ For More Weapons & Ammo.

Emmanuel Macron is at it once again. During a press conference held in Berlin following a meeting between Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Macron took the opportunity to insist that the three nations are ‘United’ when it comes to supporting Ukraine. The Three Musketeers-esque moment comes as rumors of a breach in Europe’s continuing response to keep Ukraine afloat in the war have developed. Macron returned to his earlier position of warning that the “security of Europe and the French is at stake.” He’s maneuvering to keep the European family united in support of Ukraine as internal politics in the United States continue to prevent a $60 Billion military aid package from passing. Make no mistake about it, Macron is attempting to lead Europe while the United States is focused on Israel and Gaza at present and Congress continues blocking passage of the aid package. Unfortunately for him, he resembles a young son taking over as CEO for his family’s company while the father recovers from an illness. Macron is coming up short in his efforts, but this is only partly his fault. Europe simply does not have supplies of weapons and ammunition readily available that Ukraine is pleading for. Vladimir Zelenskiy has said his nation’s priorities are air defense, armored vehicles, and artillery. This is nothing new. Europe and the US have provided hefty numbers of all three since the war began just over two years ago. The highly touted counteroffensive from last summer was not successful unfortunately. And with it went a large amount of Ukraine’s best Western weapons and equipment. Not to mention artillery ammunition, which continues to be consumed at an incredibly high pace.

Author’s Note: This will be the last Ukraine entry until early May, barring a major development. From now until then, the Western Pacific will be the focus.

Ukraine Update: 27 February, 2024

French President Emmanuel Macron’s comments suggesting that Ukraine’s allies (NATO member-states) have not ruled out sending ground forces into Ukraine has sparked outrage in Russia. Russian government officials warn such a move will bring on a direct conflict with NATO. Some European nations even publicly pushed back on Macron’s comments, stating they have no plans to send troops east to Ukraine. On Monday Macron suggested that European leaders and Western officials (read EU) meeting in Paris had suggested the possibility of sending ground forces into Ukraine. The Kremlin responded rather briskly. “In this case, we need to talk not about probability, but about inevitability, and that’s how we evaluate it,” Press Secretary Dimitriy Peskov said to reporters this afternoon. He added that NATO nations need to evaluate the consequences of such actions. Timing is everything, and with the war entering it’s third year and Ukraine Fatigue growing more pronounced in Europe and the United States, Macron’s intended to stir the pot a bit with his comments, but nothing more. The probability of NATO sending combat troops into Ukraine at this point remains minimal for a host of reasons. First and foremost, despite modest improvements coming about in their militaries since 2022, the condition of most NATO member-state’s land forces can best be described as unprepared for the sort of fighting taking place in Ukraine.

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Meanwhile, Ukraine is not just running low on artillery rounds, and other military supplies at the front. The government is also struggling to find more troops. The trouble is that Kiev has not formulated an effective plan to deal with the problem. After false starts earlier in the winter, Ukraine’s parliament finally passed the modified draft of a mobilization law. However, opposition to the law is robust and the draft fails to answer some pertinent questions regarding conscription guidelines and lengths of service for newly inducted soldiers. The manpower shortage cannot be remedied overnight though. The hope is that adequate amounts of new troops will become available by the spring.  

Ukraine Update: 17 February 2024

Russia is claiming a victory following the withdrawal of all Ukrainian military forces from the eastern city of Avdiivka. The Ukrainian government claims that the move was ordered to save the lives of its soldiers. Ukraine had spent the past several months fighting for the central Donetsk city. Despite being unfamiliar many analysts and observers outside of the Ukraine, Avdiivka is a strategically significant city. Much of the city has been destroyed, though it is worth noting that Ukrainian forces held on until the last possible moment. To have waited any longer would’ve seen them be cut off.  Not long following the retreat, Russian forces moved in and took control of the Avdiivka, cementing Moscow’s largest battlefield victory since May of 2023 in Bakhmut.

With the frontline in Ukraine remaining stable throughout the winter season, this move is significant and hands Moscow a much-needed victory. It also provides proof of the impact that ammunition shortages are having on Ukrainian forces. At the Munich Security Conference today, Volodymir Zelenskiy continues to remind practically anyone who’ll listen that a Russian victory in Ukraine will bring on repercussions across Europe and the world. Now, to be fair, we have heard this song and dance before. Zelenskiy breaks it out whenever ammunition and weapon supplies start to run low. Most objective-minded observers recognize that a Russian victory over Ukraine will bring on trouble for NATO at some point. However, Ukraine’s survival is not directly threatened right now. We crossed that bridge in 2022. As it stands right now, if the war concludes tomorrow Ukraine will survive. Granted, it would likely walk away with from the conflict having lost a chunk of its territory, its sovereignty would remain.

Still, Zelenskiy presses ahead. He continues to pressure the US to provide even more money and material despite resistance surfacing in Congress and among the US population in general. The latest security bill has been held up in Congress following the Senate passing a $96 Billion security bill aimed at providing funds and equipment for Israel, Taiwan and Ukraine, along with others.

Serious Space-Based Security Threat Emerges To Threaten US Satellites

Earlier on Wednesday there was a spurt of news coming out of Washington concerning a ‘serious national security threat.’ The Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, Mike Turner (R-Ohio) warned this morning of a national and international security threat that is directly linked to Russian nuclear capabilities which could threaten satellites in Low Earth Orbit or LEO. The majority of US military communications, reconnaissance and even missile detection satellites operate in low-earth trajectories. The system is not operational at the present time, nor has it yet been fielded. Turner is urging the Biden administration to declassify the information. “The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence has made available to all Members of Congress information concerning a serious national security threat,” Turner said. “I am requesting that President Biden declassify all information relating to this threat so that Congress, the Administration, and our allies can openly discuss the actions necessary to respond to this threat.”

According to sources the threat is, in fact, related to Russian space capabilities. The threat is not immediate in nature, according to other sources, but needs to be addressed. The amount of concern swirling around Capitol Hill since Turner’s warning has threatened to take on a life of its own. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) released a statement earlier today intended to help prevent any public panic on the national level. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is expected to personally brief select lawmakers tomorrow.

On the topic of possible nuclear weapons placed in space by Russia, there are a number of other, more dangerous possibilities these weapons could take part in outside of anti-satellite missions. One of the greatest concerns is that of a Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS.) In short, FOBS is a satellite-delivered nuclear warhead delivery method using LEO to reach its target destination. It has unlimited range and can avoid detection by radar sources up until the warhead is near its target. The Soviet Union actually had FOBS satellites deployed in orbit up until 1982 or so. If FOBS is making a return in the current geopolitical climate, it would be of considerable concern to the United States and its allies.