As Nancy Pelosi leaves Taiwan, the Western Pacific is anxiously awaiting China’s next move. The ball is squarely in Beijing’s court now and with the US Speaker of the House of Representatives having departed, China is expected to begin flexing military muscle. It’s unclear exactly what China’s next step will be, but Southeast Asian governments are highly concerned. Today, governments around the region have urged China and the United States to stand back from taking actions that could inflame tensions. Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand and other nations also affirmed publicly their support for the One China Policy, which is at the forefront of the brewing crisis at the moment.
China conducted live fire exercises near Taiwan Strait during Pelosi’s visit and has several larger ones planned for the waters around Taiwan. Parts of the designated exercise zones even appear to violate territorial waters claimed by Taiwan. If the exercises do materialize, they could bring about a major escalation in Western Pacific tensions. There is also a sizeable number of US Navy warships in the vicinity of Taiwan Strait including the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli. It is unclear how long these ships and their escorts will remain in the area.
It is not clear if or when the Chinese exercises will begin, but there will be a considerable amount of attention focused on the Western Pacific for some days to come.
Last week’s launching of the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) newest aircraft carrier attracted world attention. The ship, named Fujian, is China’s largest and most advanced aircraft carrier, rivaling US aircraft carriers in size. Capabilities, however, might be another matter altogether. I mean let’s be frank. The US Navy has decades of carrier operating experience under its belt. That has created an expertise which plays a critical role in the development of new carriers and technologies. China’s weapons and electronics, on the other hand, may look nice and comparable to US systems but likely does not measure up operationally. Then there’s the matter of training a cadre of first-rate naval aviators. It could take the Chinese some time to develop enough pilots to successfully operate an air wing from the deck of Fujian.
This carrier is just the latest milestone in China’s journey to develop a navy able to challenge the power of the US Navy. Under Xi Jinping the PLAN has undergone a massive modernization and expansion. Shipbuilding numbers have risen considerably over the last decade in every major warship class. To put it simply, China is turning out ships like hotcakes. Whether the technologies are comparable to the US Navy remains to be seen. In the end it could come down to a matter of quality (US) versus quantity (China).
China’s goal is to field six carrier battlegroups by 2035. This will give China the naval power and capabilities of a first-class blue water navy. China will be able to to project power and support it anywhere in the world. Alongside the shipbuilding surge, China has been improving its naval infrastructure by modernizing port facilities and securing berthing rights in the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean.
The US Navy has to focus its shipbuilding plan and warfighting doctrine on defeating a peer-level blue water navy at some point in the coming decade. At present, the US Navy is essentially steaming rudderless into a precarious future.
On Friday, as the People’s Republic of China celebrated its National Day holiday, aircraft from the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) were conducting a large-scale show of force in the skies southwest of Taiwan. Over a two-day period, China sent 77 combat aircraft into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ). This was the largest number of aircraft China had sent into the ADIZ in over a year, with 39 sorties on Friday, and 38 Saturday. Taiwan scrambled fighters and activated air defense sites and issued verbal warnings to the Chinese aircraft. Taiwanese airspace was not violated at all, and the behavior of the intruding aircraft was not considered to be overly aggressive.
However, the near incursions of so many Chinese warplanes over a short period of time is being regarded domestically in Taiwan as a threat. This type of intimidation is nothing new in the region. China has running air and sea exercises near Taiwan and its ADIZ for months. Internationally, the acts are seen as Chinese intimidation tactics as well as a warning to Taiwan’s supporters about intervening in any future China-Taiwan conflict.
India’s maneuvering is taking place at sea, both literally and figuratively. Sea Vigil 21, a biennial naval exercise starts today and will run through the next forty-eight hours. The scope of the exercise, in comparison to the one held in 2019, has expanded considerably. The exercise area for Sea Vigil 21 will include all 7500+ kilometers of India’s coastline and the Exclusive Economic Zone. Although mainly a coastal defense exercise aimed at securing India’s long and somewhat vulnerable shoreline, this year’s installment of Sea Vigil will act as a lead in to the major Indian Navy theater-level exercise TROPEX. The later exercise is the larger and more expansive one. Together, they will cover a transition from peacetime to war in the maritime areas, as well as the initial phases of operations at sea against an enemy force.
In recent years it has become evident that the IOR (Indian Ocean Region) is becoming more critical to Chinese geopolitical designs. China’s power in the IOR has expanded, and the same holds true for its footprint. The IOR provides crucial Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOCs) for many Asian nations as energy and trade corridors. Any vulnerabilities to them will bring on immediate effects for the economies of most Asian nations. China included. So, with this in mind the Chinese naval presence in the IOR has grown in the past few years. It is well to remember though, that in a time of crisis or conflict Chinese naval and air forces in the IOR might be more concerned with interdicting these SLOCs instead of keeping them secure.
For much of its history, India paid limited attention to the Indian Ocean. The absence of a maritime threat kept India’s naval focus locked on combating piracy and terrorism. Pakistan posed, and continues to pose a fairly limited naval threat. Concerns about China’s emerging power in the IOR have overtaken these issues. India’s strategic position in the IOR is being challenged by China. New Delhi has grown used to the Chinese military threat posed along its land border. The growing maritime threat is bringing on a new front to the Sino-Indian rivalry, as well as additional complications for India.
Sea Vigil 21, and TROPEX signal India’s acceptance of this new reality, as well as its determination to meet the challenge being posed in close proximity to its home waters head on.