Monday 3 July, 2017 Update: Trump, Poland and Why the EU is Worried

President Trump’s upcoming visit to Poland ahead of the G20 Summit in Hamburg has made some European leaders uneasy. President Trump will be meeting with his Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda, will deliver a major speech, and make an appearance at the Three Seas Initiative Summit. The visit comes at a particularly sensitive moment in Europe. Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic have been embroiled in a standoff with the European Union over the EU’s mandated refugee quotas. The worry in Brussels is what consequences Trump’s visit to Poland could bring. Particularly, there is a great deal of anxiety bordering on fear that Poles will regard Trump in their country as a sign of support for the embattled nation. Deepening instability could result from that right when the EU is desperately attempting to forge solidarity across the continent.

The Three Seas Initiative is seen by Brussels as a move by Poland to expand its geopolitical influence beyond the EU. A worst-case scenario for the EU would be the Three Seas Initiative evolving into a federation of Central-Eastern European nations in the future. A federation effectively led by Warsaw. The concept is not new. Plans for a federation along those lines was explored by Poland following the end of World War I. The blueprint failed when Russia, and many Western European nations opposed it. Duda has invested tireless effort into rekindling the project and is likely banking on Trump’s influence and power to help it get off the ground.

The immediate worry on the part of the EU is the chance that the Poles will be emboldened by Trump’s appearance and Warsaw’s defiance will increase. Geopolitically, Poland and the United States have been forging closer ties recently. The populist anti-liberal order bent of Duda’s nationalist conservative government ties in well with the general platform that drove Donald Trump to victory in the US presidential election last November. Birds of a feather do indeed flock together, especially in the high stakes world of global politics. What comes from the visit to Poland remains to be seen, but the fact that EU is reacting with increasing concern tells us that it does not expect the end result to be anything good.

 

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Friday 16 June, 2017 Update: EU Takes Action Against Eastern Europe

The European Commission has begun legal proceedings against three EU member-states who have not taken in refugees as per the 2015 plan to relocate migrants then located in Italy and Greece. The governments of Poland and Hungary have refused to take refugees in. The Czech Republic initially accepted 12 people, then informed the EU it would not accept any more.  The EU plan was intended to relocate 120,000 refugees, but so far less than 20,000 have been moved. The plan was opposed bitterly by some EU members in 2015, yet ended up being pushed through. Not surprisingly, the strongest resistance came from central and eastern European member-states.

The actions announced by Brussels are infringement proceedings. Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic will face large fines if they are found in fault, or cuts in EU funding. Whether or not the three nations pay the fines is another matter entirely. Poland especially has been outspoken in defense of its migration policies. Polish government officials have confirmed more than once that it will fight the legal proceedings. It does not appear that Poland is prepared to back down from the EU action. Hungary and the Czechs have also remained staunch in the face of threats and action by Brussels.

This matter has the potential to expand into a major issue as the year goes on. With Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron coming together and expanding their influence in all things EU, Eastern Europe’s defiance could be a challenge for them to confront. Although the nations of Eastern Europe are all EU members, most are aligned more closely Washington than they are to Berlin, Paris, or Brussels. The ‘Old Europe-New Europe’ argument that was sparked by comments by then-US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld in 2003 has long simmered below the surface of US-EU relations. Merkel and Macron could decide to use Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic’s reluctance to accept refugees as justification to attempt and reassert the power and influence of Brussels and highlight Washington’s inability to influence matters that are strictly EU in nature.

This is certainly a situation to keep an eye in the future.

 

Weekend Update Sept.19-20, 2015 Part 2: Russian Fighter Jets To Syria, No End To European Migrant Crisis In Sight

Russian Fighter Jets Arrive In Syria

Russia’s buildup of arms and military equipment in Syria continues despite US concerns and objections. As US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter spoke with his Russian counterpart to discuss ‘mechanisms for deconfliction in Syria.’ Amid the discussions, the first Russian combat aircraft arrived in Syria. Despite the limited efforts by the White House, Russia’s military moves have changed the dynamic of the Syrian crisis and civil war. Bashar al-Assad now has a firm ally in his corner now and access to a large stockpile of weapons and equipment that will help replenish his beleaguered forces. If this new reality does not concern the White House, nothing will.

Even more alarming is the fact that Russia is attempting to change the security dynamic of the entire Middle East and persuade traditional US allies in the region that Russia is a more reliable ally than the United States. The Russian moves in Syria are certainly being monitored by all of the regional powers. The chess match so far has been a largely one-sided affair. The US needs to begin making productive moves or risk losing influence among its allies in the Middle East including Israel.

US officials confirmed the arrival of four Russia Su-27 Flanker fighters in Syria. Who the aircraft will go into combat against remains to be seen. Russia insists that the forces gathering in Syria will be going into action against ISIS. They can just as easily be used to provide support for government forces. The next week should reveal much about what Russia’s real intentions are

Emergency EU Summit To Be Held This Week

The EU remains bitterly divided on how to respond to Europe’s worst migration crisis since World War II. So far, an effective response has not been found. On Wednesday, EU leaders will meet in Brussels for an emergency summit to try and work out a unified response.

Over the weekend, the situation has worsened. In the Aegean Sea, thirteen refugees died after their boat collided with a Turkish ferry. In Hungary, the border with Serbia has been reopened and thousands of refugees from Syria, Iraq and other impoverished, war-torn areas are traveling north through the country to Austria.

As much as the EU would like a unified front in handling the waves of migrants, it does not exist now. Barring a miracle this week at the emergency summit, it will not appear anytime soon either.

European Migrant Crisis Update 14, September, 2015: Tightening Borders

Some European Union nations are beginning to impose border controls and checks in an effort to cope with the influx of immigrants from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Eritrea. Germany announced that It would place checks on its border with Austria. Shortly after, Austria, Slovakia and the Netherlands announced that they would also be tightening border controls. Hungary is also moving ahead with its own border controls by midnight. The Hungarian plan includes completing a fence along the border with Serbia and stricter measures for dealing with illegal immigrants going into effect.

The current situation stems from Germany welcoming the refugees with open arms and agreeing to accept a large number. Perhaps the decision was made as a way to get other EU nations to do more for the refugees. As time goes on, though, the apathetic responses of other EU members remain unchanged. So now Germany finds itself in an awkward and not entirely unfamiliar position. It can either come out of this situation appearing indecisive or as attempting to strong arm its EU neighbors into taking actions they really do not want to take.

This afternoon EU ministers are holding an emergency session in Brussels to try and work out a comprehensive, coordinated plan to deal with the influx of migrants. No concrete results have appeared yet. Central and Eastern European nations are balking at plans to accept fixed quotas of migrants.

As it faces its largest humanitarian crisis in decades, Europe has not yet come together in putting together a plan to contend with the waves of refugees and asylum seekers. The Schengen Agreement, signed in 1985, was designed to assure passport-free movement between EU nations. The recent moves to impose border controls are allowed, however, only for temporary time allotments and in extreme circumstances.

A permanent solution needs to be found soon. Otherwise, the future of a border-free Europe will be uncertain. Much like the Greece Debt Crisis, this latest challenge to the European Union seems to be doing little more than eroding the power of the EU.