Sri Lanka is girding for potential shortages of food products and fuel in the near future. Citizens have been lining up for cooking gas, automobile fuel since Friday. As the government attempts to stave off complete economic meltdown, the nation has defaulted on debt for the first time in its history. So, much to the chagrin of Sri Lanka’s leaders, the economic outlook remains bleak as the government lifts the state of emergency decree that has been in place since early May. The state of emergency went into effect as a result of violent street protests and riots in Colombo and across the country in late April and early May. The root cause of the unrest was spiraling inflation and other factors of the nation’s economic crisis.
India and Japan will provide emergency relief to the island-nation in a bid to stave off a complete collapse. The first ship laden with food and other material will depart from India on Wednesday. Japan will provide an emergency grant for $3 million worth of medicine and food. These moves also have geopolitical purpose as both nations would prefer to keep Chinese involvement in the Sri Lankan crisis at bay. Tokyo and New Delhi are wary about offering an opening for China to expand its presence and influence in the Indian Ocean region.
In the 21st Century, North Korea has demonstrated an almost uncanny ability to always land on its feet no matter the challenge faced. This has especially held true since 2011 and the death of Kim Jong Il. The ascension of his son Kim Jong Un to the position of Dear Respected Leader led to a wave of warnings from analysts and observers around the world forecasting an imminent collapse of North Korea ‘in the near future.’ These predictions have become commonplace ever since, popping to the surface in the wake of North Korean nuclear tests or reports of worsening conditions inside of the country. It’s fair to say the North, and Kim have dodged a number of bullets over the last ten years. To the point where it would appear North Korea has nine lives. Saber rattling, economic downturns, food shortages and political crises have been cited as events which could lead to a collapse. The North has weathered all of these at one point or another, sometimes in rapid secession.
There are multiple entrants from that pool of crises in play at the present time, creating an unprecedented, ambiguous dynamic. As well as a new one: Global pandemic. Despite official claims coming out of Pyongyang, COVID-19 did land in North Korea at some point. The spread of cases in the past year, and the course of action taken by the North Korean government to combat it has certainly led to a more unpredictable situation for the hermit kingdom. COVID forced lockdowns and borders to be closed, which led to an increase in economic hardship and food shortages. Continued UN sanctions have also played a role, as has the rash of typhoons the North has experienced in the past two years. The end result has been a North Korea sagging deeper into crisis.
As a rule, North Korean leaders never openly reveal hints about problems the nation is dealing with unless the situation is approaching dire status. Thrice this year, Kim has spoken publicly about the situation in the North, even going as far as making comparisons to conditions in the late 1990s at the height of the North Korean Famine. Naturally, this has brought about questions and concerns about how bad conditions in the North are and might become in the near future. Regional analysts are attempting to downplay the crisis North Korea is facing, pointing out that conditions are not as bad as in the 1990s and predicting China will do what is necessary economically to keep the country afloat and stable. In fact, China and North Korea are expected to resume cargo train service later this month. A positive development to be certain, but one that might not become reality at all, or if it does, may not have the impact anticipated.
So, this is the situation facing North Korea at present. Certainly enough to bring on a national collapse under certain circumstances. While the North has an admirable track record when it comes to getting itself out of tight spots, nothing lasts forever. Eventually, Kim and company will find itself in a position it cannot extricate itself from. That could occur in the next month, or years down the line. The point of this month’s project is to examine how a North Korean collapse can come about in the near future. In the next project entry next weekend, we’ll discuss why a North Korean collapse is considered a nightmare scenario by so many. Specific collapse scenarios will also be discussed briefly and then in depth later in August.
Here we go again. Internal conditions in North Korea seem to be deteriorating at an accelerating pace. Every day the news reports become more disquieting; Food shortages, veiled warnings of a pandemic-related ‘Great Crisis’ by Kim Jong Un and an increasing number of foreign diplomats leaving Pyongyang every week. The picture being painted inspires neither confidence or hope about the North Korean government’s ability to stabilize conditions before it is too late. Now, predictions of an imminent North Korean collapse are making headway online….again.
We’ve been down this road before. The domestic situation in North Korea takes a turn for the worse, or Kim disappears from public view for an extended period. The media runs with it from there and starts loudly warning of a coming North Korean collapse. After a week or two, the hype disappears and North Korea muddles through yet another crisis that was supposed to sink it once and for all.
This time around, the situation in the North does appear to be more critical than it has in the past. However, looks can be deceiving. Either way, now is a good time to look at the potential scenarios that could emerge from a North Korean collapse. Unfortunately, doing so within the span of a 300-400 word entries is next to impossible. So, later on in the week I will post the first in a series of entries examining how a North Korean collapse might look in the near future. Right now, I’m thinking about 3-4 entries spread out over the next 5 weeks or so. Barring the appearance of a major crisis or pop-up conflict, of course. 😊