The Next Phase of the Brexit Saga Kicks Off

The results of last week’s elections in United Kingdom proved to be decisive. The British government now has a clear majority, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to guide the nation out of the European Union once and for all. Brexit, after years of false starts, and ceaseless bickering, appears to be inevitable. Finally.

The European Union’s part in the election results cannot be overlooked. Mistakes were made at the worst possible moments. Ruling out a Brexit extension will likely go down as the biggest error. Had Brussels been more flexible in this regard, the uncertainty and political chaos that ensued in London could’ve been avoided. Both sides likely would have come to an agreement each could live with and have moved on by now. The decision by some EU leaders to collude with Remain elements in British society, and politics was a gross miscalculation which only helped undermined the Tory and Labour reelection prospects. There was never a realistic chance of a second Brexit referendum happening, yet some EU leaders were not to be deterred and pushed for it. The results made obvious last week. The EU should have made every effort to help Theresa May get her withdrawal agreement through Parliament instead. May’s agreement was far from perfect, but it offered the likelihood of a prosperous, and amicable EU-UK coexistence in the post-Brexit era.

Now, the EU is left trying to figure out exactly what it wants from a new bilateral relationship with Great Britain. The uncertainty surrounding Brexit has not been healthy for the EU and unless the transition period is smooth, this will not change. The upcoming trade negotiations will tell a lot about the EU’s inflection and offer hints as to whether or not Brussels intends to be part of the problem, or the solution.

Canadian Elections: Trudeau Holds On

I haven’t talked much about our friends to the north in this blog, but tonight I’d like to make an exception. Canadian news media is now projecting that Justin Trudeau will remain as Canada’s prime minister, and the Liberal Party will remain in power as the results of the Canadian Federal Election come in. Polls taken in the days before the election suggested the elections would be close and Conservatives, with their leader Andrew Sheer, might be able to assume control of the government. As it stands right now, that doesn’t appear likely to happen.

Trudeau is safe, although its not yet clear if Liberals will form a minority or majority government. Again, as it stands right now, a minority government seems more likely. This scenario will leave Trudeau in a far weaker position, and needing the support of other left-leaning political parties to push legislation through. When the election results become more concrete, a better picture of the current political situation in Canada will develop.

However it goes, this election will have little effect on Canada’s geopolitical stature. Truth be told, the Trudeau government’s actions abroad have resulted in a minimal net gain for Canada, except for a handful of good soundbites.

Perhaps later in the week, as it becomes clear what direction the new Canadian government will be going in, I’ll look at the future of Canada’s military, and geopolitical agendas.

EU Election Aftermath: Great Britain

Across Europe, governments are now contending with the domestic fallout, and consequences of the 2019 EU Parliamentary elections. For some national leaders, and governments the election results were favorable, but for some of the largest nations on the continent the EU election results have brought on fear, and uncertainty about the future. The after-effects have brought on a reckoning of sorts in some cases. Great Britain is certainly one of these nation-states, but it is not the only one.

Britain was not even supposed to take part in the past weekend’s elections. Its separation from the EU was scheduled to have happened by now. As we all are aware, that departure is now unlikely to take place before October, 2019. The government’s failure to abide by the original timeline was on the minds of many as they cast their ballots. Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, barely six weeks old, was the big winner, taking 31.6 percent of the vote. Britain’s two major political parties, Labour and the Conservatives suffered humiliating defeats. These parties now find themselves in the unenviable position of having to redefine themselves in order to remain relevant in post-Brexit British politics.

In short, Labour and Conservatives both need to become pro-Brexit parties. Regardless of what the polls say, the majority of Britons still want Brexit, even if the majority of politicians in both parties don’t. It became apparent to many Britons that Theresa May, and many Members of Parliament were doing everything possible to prevent Brexit from happening. Whether or not this is the case is a moot point. Because of the mainstream politicians dithering, and delaying, Nigel Farage came out of nowhere with a political party solely committed to making Brexit a reality, and thrashed Labour and the Conservatives.

Now, with the Conservatives preparing to select Theresa May’s successor, the resumes of prospective candidates will be scrutinized carefully. No politician who was lukewarm, or hesitant about Brexit stands a chance of taking over at 10 Downing St. The separation of Great Britain from the European Union has to happen at the end of October, or if at all possible sooner. Otherwise, the Brexit party might be there to pick up the pieces and steer Britain in a direction no one is ready for.

In the next entry we will look at the nations of Western Europe.

When Does the Curtain Fall on Theresa May?

British Prime Minister Theresa May is under intense pressure to resign. Although it is probably too late, May is apparently now “listening to colleagues” about her Brexit withdrawal bill. She has halted plans to publish the legislation on Friday and will revise the bill again before it is published and debated before a vote in early June. However, it is unclear if that vote will even take place with Tory opposition deepening. On Tuesday, Brexit supporters were infuriated when May outlined a revised Brexit deal that would allow MPs to vote on whether to hold a second EU referendum. That point has triggered a near-revolt in her cabinet which is threatening to escalate.

To complicate matters even more, European Parliamentary voting has started today in the United Kingdom. The election is anticipated to bring a major victory for Nigel Farage and his Brexit Party. The chaos surrounding May’s withdrawal deal this week has been a gift for Farage. If his party wins big in the EU elections it could be disastrous for the Conservatives, and end up bringing about May’s resignation despite her efforts to preserve her position. If the EU parliamentary election results are as bad for Conservatives as feared, May could be forced to resign as the party leader by Monday at the latest.

Regardless of how the next few days play out, Theresa May’s time at 10 Downing Street is evidently coming to an end.

Brexit’s Day of Decision Looms

The fate of Brexit Withdrawal Agreement crafted by Theresa May and her European Union counterparts will be decided when the House of Commons votes on it Tuesday. The end result of tomorrow’s vote is not expected to favor May and the government. Opposition to the deal has not softened since May called off the vote last month. She could postpone the vote again if she wishes too, however, such a move would not help her cause at this point. She has staked the future of the government, as well as her own political future, on Tuesday’s outcome. If it goes in her favor, May will enjoy a major victory and walk away with a large amount of political capital in her pocket. Should the more likely opposite result come about, May will have to take her medicine, so to speak, and accept the results of the vote, and the consequences it brings about.

Those possible consequences are what have many Britons on edge at the moment. May’s government could collapse. Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn is expected to file a no-confidence motion after the vote is held. This move could potentially bring about a new general election, though the chances of it going so far are small. Other potential scenarios include a new Brexit referendum, a disorderly UK withdrawal from the EU, or a complete scrapping of the Brexit process. May can also try for another vote in the future, although this step should be avoided entirely as it would drop the British political system, and economy into a extended period of uncertainty that neither can afford to weather.

The Brexit crisis in Britain at the moment represents a point where contemporary global political trends have clashed. Populism, protectionism, and nationalism squaring off against globalism and pluralism in a contest that has created a stalemate closely resembling the Western Front in World War I. Whatever comes about following tomorrow’s vote will have a lasting impact on the United Kingdom, and the European Union. This much is certain.