Ukraine Update 8 February, 2024: Syrskyi Tagged as New Commander-In-Chief

The axe finally fell in Kiev. Volodymir Zelenskiy brought an end to weeks of expectations and speculation and removed Valery Zaluzhny as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The move was made as a conflict between Zelenskiy, and the military reached the boiling point. The Ukrainian president announced the move and emphasized that the Ukrainian military is in need of a ‘renewal’ and Zaluzhny will ‘remain part of the team.’ These points were made with minimal supporting information or facts naturally. The change at the top of Ukraine’s military command structure is coming as the two-year anniversary of the war is approaching in late February.

Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi has been named to replace Zaluzhny. A media blitz followed shortly after Syrskyi’s ascent, bringing about background information about him and his career that is rather contentious. Syrskyi was the commander of Ukrainian ground forces and Zelenskiy’s office is trying to sell him as the officer responsible for the defense of Kiev and the offensive that ejected Russian forces from out of Kharkov. However, he was also severely criticized for his battlefield decisions at Bakhmut.  The city was eventually taken by Russia and the severe number of Ukrainian casualties led to him gaining the nickname of ‘the Butcher.’ This could potentially be a problem within Ukrainian ranks as some soldiers, as well as his critics, have been in opposition to Syrskyi’s decisions and tactics on the battlefield.  

Ukraine Update 5 June, 2023: Is The Counteroffensive Underway?

There have been conflicting reports arriving throughout the day about Ukrainian offensive operations commencing in a number of locations. Ukrainian officials claim that the military is ‘shifting to offensive operations.’  According to the deputy defense minister, Ukrainian forces have advanced as far as one mile north and south of Bakhmut, a city described as the ‘epicenter of hostilities.’ According to sources, the Ukrainians have also started a larger offensive in the Donetsk region on Sunday with six mechanized and two tank battalions. The area is one regarded as vulnerable by Ukrainian military leaders, though Russia claims to have stopped the attack. Whether this was a diversionary move or the first step in a larger offensive remains to be seen. For that matter, it is still unclear if the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive is now underway. Given the relevance of the current date in Ukraine (6 June), this would be an appropriate time to launch the counteroffensive.

There is a lot riding on the shoulder of this Ukrainian counteroffensive whenever it begins. Success on the battlefield carries its own rewards, however, beyond the frontlines, a successful counteroffensive will solidify long-term support from the West. It would also enable Ukraine to talk peace from a position of strength. On the flip side, if the offensive bogs down it will lead some in the West to question Ukraine’s strategy and the prudence of maintaining a high level of support indefinitely.

Hopefully the next 24 hours will help determine if the counteroffensive is now underway, or if this was nothing more than a false start.

Ukraine Update 21 May, 2023: Bakhmut’s Fate

Volodymir Zelenskiy’s claim that a small section of Bakhmut remains under Ukrainian control is a sailboat of hope braving increasingly heavy seas of factual certainty. By most independent accounts coming out of the Bakhmut area, Ukrainian forces have been ejected from the town. Russian forces and elements of the Wagner Group are in control of Bakhmut. In Hiroshima for the G7 summit meeting, Zelenskiy was faced with having to put the best face possible on the increasingly negative news coming out of Bakhmut. Almost defiantly, Ukraine’s leader has declared the town has not been captured by Russia. As the hours slip by, Ukrainian officials back home are also scrambling to put the best face upon the situation. According to Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, “Our forces have taken the city in a semi-encirclement, which gives us the opportunity to destroy the enemy … [who] has to defend himself in the part of the city he controls.” Neither Zelenskiy nor his defense officials and general officers would go into detail on their statements.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy also said Sunday that Bakhmut was “only in our hearts,” a curious reference which could be intended to pave the way for bad news in the coming hours and days. If the town is in Russian hands the defeat will reverberate across Ukraine and have a profound effect on Ukrainian morale both on the frontlines and among the population. Meanwhile, with the news from Bakhmut still fresh, US President Joe Biden announced $375 million more in aid for Ukraine, which included more ammunition, artillery, and vehicles. Because so far, the billions of dollars in equipment and war material that has already been shipped east just has not been sufficient to stop the Russian advance permanently. Biden’s philosophy is similar to the ‘throw money at a problem to fix it’ mentality so rampant in Washington DC. Only instead of throwing money, Biden’s tossing artillery shells and armored vehicles.  

The Coming Ukrainian Counteroffensive

Anticipation for the long-expected Ukrainian counteroffensive is increasing with each passing day. To be fair, the coming counteroffensive must be one of the worst-kept secrets in military history. The Ukrainian government has made no sincere effort to conceal their plans to retake areas of the homeland currently held by Russian forces. Statements are made in broad terms though, and very few details emerge. The ones that do, however, are analyzed to death by journalists, military experts and of course, by the legions of OSINT amateurs on social media. There is growing speculation that behind the scenes some Western leaders are not entirely convinced Ukraine’s counteroffensive will live up to the growing expectations. In fact, there is increasing concern in some Western capital cities about how negatively a failed counteroffensive could affect the constant stream of money and material from Europe and the United States east to Kiev.

On the flip side, the Russians know what is coming and should be preparing. The critical variable now is timing. Will a counteroffensive start in late April or early May? Or will it not kick off until late May or early June? Every passing day gives the Russian military and government more time to prepare. After Ukrainian forces successfully secured positions on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River on Sunday, there was widespread speculation that this signaled the start of the counteroffensive. Now, some two days later, it appears this was not the case.

Where Ukraine enjoys a seemingly limitless stream of Western weapons and ammunition, Russia is not so fortunate. Manpower and material shortages have caused problems for Russian units now in Ukraine. How problematic these shortages are remains to be seen. There does not appear to be an issue in Bakhmut where Russian forces are said to be concentrating for a new assault on Ukrainian positions.

Counteroffensive or not, the fighting around Bakhmut does not look to be diminishing any time soon. Both sides appear determined to maintain the stalemate or bring about a victory at any cost.

A Little Sawgrass Chat On This Sunday Evening

The Players Championship had drawn to a close. After spending a few days immersed in golf paradise it is time to start thinking about my impending return to the real world. As I sit here enjoying my final Sawgrass Splash and take a look at what has been going on while I have been pleasantly preoccupied here at TPC Sawgrass, I must admit it has been an active last four or five days around the world.

First up, China’s peace-brokering mission in the Persian Gulf. Normalizing relations between the two major powers in the region will provide China with some much-needed positive press. Today, China insisted its was pursuing no ulterior motives in bringing Iran and Saudi Arabia. In a statement released earlier this weekend by China’s Foreign Ministry stated,  “We respect the stature of Middle East countries as the masters of the region and oppose geopolitical competition in the Middle East.” Despite the contents of this press release, Beijing’s move is a clear signal of its intent to play a significant role in the Persian Gulf region for some time. China’s growing presence and influence in the region does not sit well with the United States and for good reason. For much of the past three decades, Washington has been the undeclared Godfather of the Middle East. Nothing moved forward the discreet approval of the White House. Regional leaders were not always satisfied with the arrangement but nevertheless played ball. Unfortunately, the Biden administration made a strategic error by relegating the Middle East to the back burner and focusing almost obsessively on Europe, the war in Ukraine and more recently the Western Pacific. US diplomats and the White House created a tremendous opportunity for China and Beijing wasted little time cashing in. Now there are two major outside players competing for friendships and influence in the region. The more savvy operators in the Gulf will use this new reality to their advantage. For the time being, US prestige has taken a hit. It will be up to Antony Blinken to right the ship, so to speak. I’m not convinced he can pull it off.

Then there is the Bakhmut meatgrinder in Ukraine. Neither side can effectively disengage at this point without suffering a significant blow to morale. Ukraine is almost fully invested in defending Bakhmut. Zelenskiy has not ordered a retreat yet and seems he is in no hurry to at this point. Despite the heavy number of casualties that pile up daily. Losing the city now will do tremendous harm to national morale. For better or worse, Ukraine is committed to the defense of Bakhmut, signaling its willingness to turn the city into a miniature Stalingrad. Russia is thinking along similar lines. Unfortunately for both sides, the war will not be won in Bakhmut. However, it could easily be lost if men and equipment continue to be added to the battle without a definitive strategy.