the burgeoning iran-china partnership

With most doors on the international front now closed to Iran, it was only a matter of time before the Tehran regime turned to China for a lifeline. A major partnership between China and Iran has been discussed by the two governments for well over a decade. A diplomatic track aimed at bringing such a partnership into reality has been active since around the time of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s tenure as the Iranian president.

Now it would appear that the deal has become a near-certainty. A strategic partnership proposal between China and Iran is on the table awaiting approval from the Iranian legislature . The deal binds the two nations together through the next 25 years with economic and military cooperation making up a large part of the new arrangement. Under the terms of the deal Iran will provide crude oil to China for 25 years, giving Tehran a sorely needed long term, secure market for Iranian oil. The two nations will cooperate deeply in many areas from energy, to tourism, and cybersecurity. China will be granted ‘unprecedented privileges.’ It will assume control of Iran’s telecommunications infrastructure, and ease the introduction of 5G technology to the nation. China will also invest billions of dollars in Iran as part of the Belt and Road Initiative.

At first glance the partnership seems to offer Iran a lucrative lifeline back into the world, and a way to circumvent the crippling effect US sanctions have had on it in the past two years. But there is a considerable amount of internal opposition to the deal. Probably not enough to derail it since it had the official support of Ayatollah Khameini, but perhaps enough opposition to make the regime’s hold on power less assured. A number of prominent Iranians have stated their opposition to the deal, and with good reason. In effect, Iran will be the junior partner in the new relationship, similar to the role Pakistan plays in the Sino-Pakistani partnership. In return for practically handing China the keys to the kingdom, Iran will receive the benefit of becoming a Chinese colony. Power will transfer, albeit gradually, and surreptitiously from Teheran to Beijing. Iranian sovereignty will be degraded.

All of this to defy the United States, and stubbornly hold firmly to the dream of an Iranian nuclear weapons program. If the Iranian government was more moderate perhaps a happy medium could be reached with Washington. Unfortunately, events have gone in another direction and now Iran stands on the verge of selling its soul to the Chinese.

Tuesday 2 January, 2018 Update: Iran Blames Protests on Enemies

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Speaking for the first time since protests began in Iran last Thursday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei accused Iran’s enemies for instigating the internal strife. He was quoted with the following statement: “In recent days, enemies of Iran used different tools including cash, weapons, politics and intelligence services to create troubles for the Islamic Republic.”

Although Khamenei did not specifically mention the enemies by name, his comment was designed to be a swipe at Iran’s traditional adversaries, namely Israel, the United States, and Saudi Arabia. President Trump has been especially vocal with his support of Iranian protesters, tweeting his views as well as reminders that the United States is watching events in Iran closely. So is the rest of the world, for that matter. Khamenei had to release a statement of some sort in response to Trump’s comments. It comes as no surprise that his first public comment on the crisis was to blame the riots on Iran’s enemies. The statement was generic. When faced with internal unrest, Iran has a history of blaming its enemies for inciting it.

 

At least twenty Iranians have died in the protests and over 500 were arrested thus far. Those numbers will continue to rise as long as the unrest continues. This round of protests and riots is significantly smaller than those which took place in 2009. Back then, millions protested the results of the presidential election that gave Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a second term in office. Security forces eventually crushed the Green Movement following weeks of violent protests.

 

The current demonstrations are being fueled by economic hardship though and this reality is leaving Iran’s leadership somewhat unnerved. Economic problems have a way of spiraling into political chaos. Inflation and unemployment are rising, yet the government has been unable to do anything substantial to reverse economic conditions. Iranians are feeling the pinch and their frustrations have blossomed into anger against the government. Where it goes from here is anyone’s guess.