The end might be approaching for Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut. Maybe. It depends on whose statements and reports you choose to agree with. The Russians and their Wagner Group mercenaries claim to have made tremendous gains and are on the verge of encircling the city. Despite the encouraging tone and content of Russian statements, the fighting continues.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government’s position on Bakhmut is undergoing a revision. Volodymir Zelenskiy has promised Ukrainian troops will continue fighting on in Bakhmut. By continuing to hold the city, he explained in an interview yesterday, it denies Russia from being able to claim a symbolic victory, as well preventing Russian forces from capturing Bakhmut and using it as a jump-off point for future operations in the east. As for the city’s value to Ukraine and its military, at this time it is representational. Ukrainian forces have prepared hardened defensive lines to the west in anticipation of the future Russian axis of advance. The danger right now for Ukrainian forces in and around Bakhmut is time. The longer they remain in place, the greater the chances of their eventual encirclement becomes. Nevertheless, Zelenskiy and his military commanders met earlier in the week and decided Bakhmut will continue to be defended.
NATO is preparing for the possible fall of Bakhmut as well. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg admitted today that the city could be in Russian hands within a matter of days. However, Stoltenberg was also careful to point out that should Bakhmut fall it will not represent a turning point in the war or swing momentum back to the Russian side.
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*SHOULD* the Russians actually take Bakhmut, I am pretty sure the victory will be one of those win that adhere to the adage “Too many more wins like this and we are ruined”.
No matter whose official statement you read, the circumstantial and general info out there indicates the Russians lost a shitton of men and material in fighting there (merc and proper Russian Army).
I do think the Russian forces are being bled white there… yes the Ukrainians are losing men/material too… but no where near the rate of the Russians. And despite the greatest efforts of the apologists and sock puppet proclamations by their Information Agents, the Russians do not have the ass nor the means to truly prosecute anything past this point *if* they won.
One battle can (and often does) make or break an effort… And this is one of those. Both sides know it…. but the stronger hand really is the Ukrainians. Fixation on a specific place or force can wreck your plans. I see it all the time in wargaming and the like… and the smart defender can use it to advantage. I know I have bludgeoned an opponent who fixated on one spot or unit… and when I have slipped up and done the fixation thing, my opponent has used it against me.
Bakhmut is a live, real-time fixation for the Russian Offensive…. and imo, when the dust settles enough for experts to look at it, this battle will wind up being a perfect example of not seeing the forest for the trees, of how losing site of the overall happened here and cost them EVERYTHING.
Not that they had a winning plan of any fucking kind from the get-go…. but this, this will pretty much wreck any salvaging of their effort. My two cents, of course.
Nailed it with your two cents I think. The next week or two will reveal a lot over there. Right now its a 21st Century Stalingrad in every way.
Great to see the determination and resilience of the Ukrainian forces and their government in defending Bakhmut against Russian aggression.
~ Vika
Agreed 🙂