Whatever Happened To Ukraine’s Counteroffensive?

For weeks, if not months, Kiev has indicated the recapture of the southern city of Kherson will mark the start of a long-awaited counteroffensive aimed at turning the tide of the war. Despite the assurances and claims by the Ukrainian military and government, the counteroffensive has not taken shape. The heavy attention given to artillery and rocket attacks in the southern Ukraine, coupled with attacks against Russian military installations in Crimea last week certainly give the indication of a major counteroffensive kicking off. Unfortunately, the sound and fury of last week appear to signify nothing. There are no troop movements underway or shifting of supplies. The Ukrainian air force, despite government claims, has not played an effective role in the fighting for weeks.

Kherson remains in Russian hands. Despite the heavy impact Ukrainian artillery and rockets have had on the city, Russian troops are dug in and resisting in kind. The fight for the city has devolved into a stalemate with no signs of a counteroffensive evident. In fact, Kherson mimics the strategic situation entirely: Long term stalemate with no signs of decisive progress looming on the horizon.

Ukraine has been in the periphery for me this summer, admittedly. Between the Western Pacific flaring up and professional obligations demanding to be met, I have not had the time to go into deep analysis of the war in Ukraine. I am planning to address Kherson and the strategic stalemate which now seems set to impact the war and remain an unpredictable element for some time to come. Hopefully Sunday at the earliest, barring any major developments in Ukraine, the Pacific or anywhere else in the world.

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