Ukraine Update 6 July, 2022

-The city of Sloviansk in the Donetsk region will be the next objective for Russian forces operating in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Russian forces are closing on the city with units from the Western and Eastern Groups of Forces now just 10 miles from there. Ukrainian forces in and around Sloviansk are digging in and preparing for the enemy assault, which is expected to begin within two days. The city’s mayor has ordered an evacuation of all remaining residents. The effort to clear out Sloviansk began rather later than expected, partly owing to the widening gap between events on the ground and how they are being reported by the Ukrainian and Western medias. The articles and reports coming from a number of media groups and journalists are borderline pro-Ukrainian propaganda, based on reports from Ukrainian government officials and the military instead of facts.

-Revised forecasts by economists indicate Russia is heading towards a less severe recession than forecasters had originally expected. Rising oil production in Russia has done much to offset the economic sanctions put in place by the United States and Europe as well as by other nations around the world. It also speaks volumes for the degree of preparedness Russia had gone to in order to make its economy as sanction-hardened as possible.  In the months leading up to war there was a considerable amount of speculation that Russia’s economic security had been fortified to an extent. A fair number of US and European economists and analysts rejected the notion and continued forward with their belief that the weight of global sanctions would do severe damage to the Russian economy and deter Moscow from embarking upon a course of belligerence for very long.

It would appear they were wrong.

2 thoughts on “Ukraine Update 6 July, 2022

  1. Sanctions, I’m starting to lean into the CATO institute line of thinking. Can you recall a case where they have had the desired effect, besides punishment: that the economic/military elite of a nation suffers enough to overthrow its current political leadership?
    Iraq between the Gulf War&Bush invasion. Iran, still under the Ayatollah. North Korea, Nuke program as strong as ever. Russia since 2014, Syria. Fmr. Yugoslavia we ended up bombing.
    Closest I can think is Libya, Qudaffei giving up his Nuke program. But if I recall he had suffered under sanctions for years, it was really the threat of invasion that moved him.
    Any others? As a fmr Democrat, I was a big believer in sanctions before war, but looking back, I’m not seeing ANY successes.

    • I’m with you. History has shown us time and time again that sanctions alone hardly ever deter a nation-state from undertaking a belligerent path. Each example you listed above is on target. Sanctions were introduced not as a stopgap measure but as a complete replacement for military force.
      Libya, yeah. They gave up their nuclear program voluntarily but it was out of a desire to avoid an Operation Libyan Freedom from happening. And it happened anyhow, really.

      This time around there was hope that the economic elite in Russia would tire of the sanctions and throw Putin out. That has not happened and probably won’t.

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