Ukraine Update 21 February, 2022 (8 PM)

The White House said earlier today that sanctions will be imposed on the Luhansk People’s Republic and the Donetsk People’s Republic, but stopped short of announcing sanctions against Russia. The restricted application of sanctions now seems calculated to leave open the chance for a diplomatic solution. For weeks now, the United States and Europe have threatened major economic sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine. Now, with Russian forces moving into the newly recognized independent separatist states, the definition of what exactly constitutes an invasion falls into a gray area. Are Russian troops crossing into what the world recognizes as Ukrainian territory? Yes. Is it a full-scale invasion aimed at toppling the Zelenskiy government and seizing control of the entire country? No. For now the number of troops entering LPR and DPR territory appears to be limited and their mission has been defined as ‘peacekeeping.’

The true nature of the so-called ‘peacekeeping mission’ and Russia’s troop movement into eastern Ukraine will begin to take shape in the coming hours. So far there have been no reports of significant contact between Ukrainian and separatist or Russian forces.

President Zelensky addressed the Ukrainian people after 2am local time. “We are not afraid. We won’t cede anything.” He said Putin withdrew from Minsk Agreements by ordering troops into Ukraine officially. He called for emergency meetings of OSCE, Normandy Format, UNSC. The timing of the address left me a bit perplexed. Why wait until 2 AM to address the people? Granted, most Ukrainians are probably awake now given what is happening in the east. It’s enough to make a cynical person wonder if the Ukrainian government expects something significant to happen later in the morning.

I’ll try and get one more update out before midnight. Things on my end are getting a little busy, but I should be able to get one out. Even if it’s relatively short.

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