On Monday, Iraqi Kurds voted in a referendum on an independent Kurdish state. The official results will not be revealed until later in the week, but a vote in favor of independence is expected. For ethnic Kurds, Monday was a historic day and a step closer to achieving their long sought after goal of forming an independent state out of the Kurdish areas in northern Iraq.
Regional, and international reactions to the referendum were generally negative. The nations surrounding Iraqi Kurdistan have rejected the vote and are notably wary of the consequences it could bring. For Iraq, the vote could mean a redrawing of its borders and a redistribution of the nation’s oil wealth. Iran and Turkey are concerned that the vote will inspire their own Kurdish populations to demand more autonomy, something that neither nation is willing to consider. Regional concerns have been paired with saber-rattling from neighboring nations. Today, Iraqi and Turkish forces are staging joint exercises on their shared border. Iran has also held exercises on its border with Iraq and closed off its airspace to aircraft traveling to and from Iraqi Kurdistan.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan lashed out at the Kurds, warning them that they are risking an ethnic war. He stated that economic sanctions and military action are both possible responses to the referendum. Turkey considers this a national security threat. Ankara has had problems with its own Kurdish population and, like Iran, fears this vote will embolden its own Kurds. Iraq is not thrilled either, as mentioned above. Yesterday, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi called the vote unconstitutional, and ruled out talks on the referendum results with the Kurds.
The United Nations has also taken note of the potential fallout the vote might bring. Secretary General António Guterres warned of the ‘destabilizing effects’ that could result from it. Even the United States could not abstain from voicing its disappointment, voicing its own concerns about the instability that the Kurdish referendum could bring to a region that is already a powder keg.