One comment on “Defending Poland: Could Hybrid War Work In Poland?

  1. What do you think decisive victory looks like to Russia in Ukraine? I would suggest that the Russians are trying to force the west and Kiev to negotiate with Russia over the future of the Ukraine. Unlike you, I see Russia’s actions in Ukraine as defensive not expansionist.

    The whole point is that Ukraine, like Belarus WAS within Russia’s informal sphere of influence. Recent events have wrested it out of Russia’s influence. Russia fears that Ukraine will ultimately be a base for Nato operations. The Russians want Ukraine NEUTRALISED, like Finland in the cold war. Their intervention does two things, one, in Crimea it stops their navy being kicked out of the Black Sea. Two intervention in the east forces the west to consider Russia as a ‘stakeholder’ in the future political direction of Ukraine, visa vis the west and Nato etc.

    Please apply your strategic analysis skills objectively now. Pretend you are in charge of defending Russia. Events in Ukraine mean – the Black Sea becomes a Nato lake and can be closed to Russian shipping. (Incidentally this has deep strategic significance which I will no go into now).

    Secondly Ukraine has around 700 miles of largely indefensible border with Russia, and at its nearest point the border is one week’s march for a Nato armoured division.

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