Western Pacific Update: 10 May, 2024

Manila is flexing military muscle in the South China Sea as the annual joint US-Philippine exercise Balikatan ‘24 came to a close in the South China Sea.  On Wednesday, the final day of the exercise, US, Australian and Philippine forces staged a mock attack against a Chinese-made target ship. The attack simulated a mock air-sea-land strike that sent the former BRP Lake Caliraya to the bottom of the sea. The Philippine Navy frigate BRP Jose Rizal applied the death blow, engaging the target with an anti-ship missile. With tensions in the SCS continuing to trend in the wrong direction, Philippine actions lately have been a shot across China’s bow, indicating that its naval forces might not tolerate harassment from China’s coast guard and naval militia boats around Second Thomas Shoal and elsewhere for long without responding.

Meanwhile, to the north of the SCS, preparations are underway for the inauguration of President-elect Lai Ching-te on 20 May, 2024. The Taiwanese anticipate a marked rise in military exercises by China in the days leading up to Lai taking office. Taiwan’s defense ministry claims the nation’s military is prepared to meet any and all Chinese moves that might come about later this month, setting the stage for a strained period of time in the leadup to Lai’s inauguration. And there is little reason to believe that China will throttle back after Lai is in office. In fact, the  opposite seems more probable. I will discuss this more over the weekend.

Quick Note: The semester is drawing to an end, so after Memorial Day weekend, the Western Pacific bubble will be popped and entries about events going on elsewhere will return to the blog.

South China Sea Update: The ‘New Model’ Shell Game

Allegations and denials between Beijing and Manila over a purported agreement continue to play out. Today the Philippine defense secretary and national security adviser issued separate statements that deny China’s claim that an agreement had been reached with the Philippines and a ‘new model’ for handling the territorial dispute between the two nations is presently in effect. Earlier this weekend a spokesman from the Chinese embassy in Manila said that an agreement was reached earlier this year with the Philippine military’s Western Command on a ‘new model’ to manage the situation at Second Thomas Shoal. Claims and counterclaims have been exchanged and this appears as if it will continue into the coming week. The Chinese embassy has said the Philippine military’s Western Command made ‘repeated confirmation’ that the agreement was approved by ‘all key officials in the Philippine chain of command.’  China’s statements on the alleged ‘new model’ were not made public until after Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s administration rejected the existence of the ‘gentleman’s agreement’ that China claims was made in 2016 with former President Rodrigo Duterte.

China’s response to Manila’s denials this weekend will reveal the road Beijing intends to take with regards to Second Thomas Shoal. Should the Chinese opt to move forward under the ‘terms’ of this ‘new model,’ it can mean Beijing is looking to instigate a disproportionate response. Over the last twelve months, China’s actions in and around the Philippine EEZ have seemed illogical and counter-productive to its position in the South China Sea. However, a closer examination of the pieces, and the emerging puzzle now suggest that Beijing’s intent all along could’ve been to provoke a situation with the Philippines that paints Manila as the stubborn aggressor. The sudden existence of a ‘new model’ plan, the existence of which the Philippine government denies, opens the door to a more dangerous situation down the line that can escalate tensions to a dangerous level in the coming weeks.

Blinken Returned Emptyhanded From China

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s China trip last week did little to help relations between the United States and China. If anything, his three days in China served to highlight the expanding divide between the two superpowers on a host of issues. Blinken arrived in China with marching orders from the White House to warn Beijing that the US is seriously concerned with Chinese support for Russia’s defense industry as the war in Ukraine continues. Blinken concluded his trip last Friday with a warning to cease exporting materials that allow Russia to rebuild its industrial base or else face US sanctions. China has refused to end its support and the threat of sanctions is hardly raising an eyebrow among Chinese leadership.

In fact, Xi Jinping countered by informing Blinken that the United States needs to look at China’s rise positively for relations to improve. China’s foreign minister Wang Yi made similar remarks.  “China’s legitimate development rights have been unreasonably suppressed and our core interests are facing challenges.”  The head Chinese diplomat also remarked, however, that he believes US and Chinese relations are starting to stabilize with increased dialogue and cooperation.

With all of that in mind, Chinese military activity around Taiwan picked up measurably following Blinken’s departure. Within twenty-four hours, Chinese warplanes crossed the median line of Taiwan Strait. The line had served as an unofficial border between China and Taiwan, but in recent years China has routinely sent aircraft across the it. Beijing claims it does not regard the median line’s existence.  

Back to Posting On Monday

Good Saturday Evening. I hope everyone has had a productive week. Very sorry for not posting as much as I had hoped to. Some unexpected events on campus over the past week have required unanticipated attention and work. Fortunately, all is back to normal, at least here. Classes are over for the semester, leaving final papers and the final exams for the students followed by the turning in of grades around mid-month.

The plan is to start posting entries again on Monday and again around mid-week. Between now and mid-May the Western Pacific will be the main focus. Then the transition to other wars and crises can begin. It’s been a while and being out of the loop hasn’t helped me too much 😊 I’ll be caught up and ready to go when the time comes, however. Monday’s entry will look at the dismal performance Secretary Blinken gave on his trip to China, along with brief looks at what has been going on in the South China Sea. Consider Monday’s post to be something of a catchup piece.

Western Pacific Naval Symposium Opens In Qingdao, China

The 19^th Western Pacific Naval Symposium (WPNS) opened on Monday in the Chinese port city of Qingdao located on the Yellow Sea coast. This symposium is a gathering of naval leaders from Western Pacific nations held once every two years. As the name suggests, naval matters are the prime subject of discussion. With this year’s WPNS being held in China, a keynote address was delivered by Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission.

Zhang said that China will play a more positive and open role in international military cooperation. He called for an end to the Cold War mentality and for differences to be bridged through constructive dialogue. Next, he issued a warning that China would strike back with force if its national interests are threatened. China’s territorial and maritime claims in the Western Pacific were specifically what Zhang was referring to. And with tensions continuing to ascend over China’s increasingly direct and assertive actions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, the vice chairman’s address was not disregarded.

In the East China Sea, China and Japan remain at loggerheads over the Senkaku Islands. Although the islands are uninhabited, the chain is an indisputable part of Japan’s territory. China sees the situation differently of course and there have been several incursions made by Chinese coast guard vessels and military aircraft over the years. Japan defends the islands and the dispute over them between Beijing and Tokyo shows no sign of coming to an end.

Continuing disputes in the South China Sea, as well as the Taiwan Strait are topics we’ve covered multiple times over the months on this blog. Chances are, this trend will continue and quite possibly intensify as 2024 continues on. With this in mind, Zhang’s comments on Chinese territorial sovereignty should raise an eyebrow momentarily and cause many folks to read between the lines. It “brooks no infringement and its core interests cannot be challenged. We do not provoke trouble, but we will never flinch in face of provocation. The Chinese military will resolutely defend the reunification and interest of the motherland.”